Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a1c…970a other 117 markets active 0h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$45,110 (+5%) realized +$45,357 · open −$247
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate83%95W / 20L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$7,169per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$9,781now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days+$5,701
14 days+$5,702
30 days+$5,702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$44,524
crypto 36% +$628
politics 11% +$142
world 6% $0
sports 2% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +6.2% -4.0% 100% 20% -4.6%
≤30d 6 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 17% -4.7%
≤90d 17 -0.6% -10.1% 65% 18% +5.6%
all 115 +8.6% -1.7% 83% 20% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.7% 20% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -11.1% 13% -13.7%
15% -19.7% 7% -22.0%
20% -27.6% 5% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$9,799) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$659 vs −$1,081 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.62 per $1 lost it wins $3.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$9,781
Realized+$45,357
Unrealized−$247
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses95 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 117
History coverage210d
Avg bet$7,169
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10,029 $9,781 −$247 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $76,830 +$127 +0%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $9,241 +$25 +0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $578 +$1 +0%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $71 $0 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Jun 18 $18,686 +$5,548 +30%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 9? Jun 12 $500 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 11 $9,945 +$60 +1%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $45,431 +$38,900 +86%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Apr 17 $50,000 $0 +0%
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $1,000 $0 -0%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $1,000 −$10 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 11 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will Andrey Esipenko win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 10 $1,079 −$1,025 -95%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 01 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $13,587 +$14 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 31 $5,640 −$2,430 -43%
Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Mar 31 $4,840 +$560 +12%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-10? Mar 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 08 $3 +$7 +255%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-16? Mar 08 $720 −$720 -100%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Mar 08 $2,200 −$375 -17%
Will Athletic Club vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Mar 08 $34 −$34 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08? Mar 07 $102 +$34 +33%
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 06 $1,060 −$200 -19%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-28? Mar 02 $102 +$48 +47%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-02-25? Feb 25 $1,000 $0 +0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-22? Feb 25 $99 +$14 +14%
Robinhood (HOOD) Up or Down on February 18? Feb 18 $140 $0 +0%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $11,379 +$621 +6%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $100 −$95 -94%
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? Feb 12 $732 +$92 +12%
Will FC Barcelona vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? Feb 11 $330 +$120 +36%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-07? Feb 08 $101 +$16 +16%
Rainbow FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 07 $358 +$315 +88%
Rainbow FDV above $600M one day after launch? Feb 07 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-03? Feb 04 $410 +$90 +22%
Zama FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 04 $1,101 +$248 +22%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-31? Feb 01 $2,235 +$765 +34%
Moonbirds FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jan 30 $10,435 −$9,905 -95%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-28? Jan 29 $891 +$222 +25%
Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jan 28 $502 −$409 -82%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-25? Jan 26 $101 +$16 +16%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-18? Jan 25 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-15? Jan 16 $100 +$32 +32%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $9,808 −$622 -6%
Over $20M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $9,200 +$800 +9%
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 10 $18,556 +$1,827 +10%
Lighter FDV above $5B one day after launch? Jan 01 $9,990 +$10 +0%
Lighter FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 01 $14,970 +$30 +0%
Will Solana reach $260 before 2026? Jan 01 $39,325 +$675 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $65 21m
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $647 5h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,212 5h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2,274 5h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,470 5h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,127 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $9 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $194 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $23 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $2 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $5 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,781.42 · official $9,781.42 (match) · 2009 history records