Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:00:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a1e…6f16 sports 927 markets active 0h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$515 (+2%) realized +$515 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%487W / 440L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day11.6pace
Fees−$163est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$355
7 days−$1,067
14 days−$1,810
30 days−$2,548
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$624
crypto 21% −$775
other 6% +$232
world 0% +$3
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -21.4% -28.9% 57% 39% -32.9%
≤30d 509 -14.5% -22.7% 54% 46% -23.9%
≤90d 791 -14.6% -22.7% 49% 44% -19.5%
all 927 -5.8% -14.8% 53% 47% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 47% -9.3%
10% -22.9% 40% -18.0%
15% -30.4% 33% -25.9%
20% -37.2% 28% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$25 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$515
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses487 / 440
Est. fees paid−$163
Open positions0
Markets (closed)927 / 927
History coverage161d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day11.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 927 Trades
no open positions (27 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$6 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +152%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +302%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +62%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $56 +$27 +49%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $6 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $17 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $66 +$16 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $66 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$15 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $30 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$9 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 22m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 58¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $2 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $4 2h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2312 history records