Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a1e…1d38 crypto 496 markets active 0h ago coverage 160d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$371 (+2%) realized +$371 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%259W / 237L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$638
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$1,006
politics 4% +$629
world 1% +$17
other 1% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 +4.4% -5.6% 58% 56% -10.1%
≤30d 288 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 52% -21.6%
≤90d 483 -2.9% -12.1% 51% 51% -22.8%
all 496 -0.3% -9.8% 52% 51% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 51% -11.8%
10% -18.4% 50% -20.2%
15% -26.3% 49% -27.9%
20% -33.5% 45% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$37 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

160d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$371
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses259 / 237
Open positions0
Markets (closed)496 / 496
History coverage160d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 496 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$12 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $15 +$11 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$11 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$13 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$26 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$14 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$7 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$9 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1419 history records