Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:58:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a1f…0d9d other 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+2%) realized +$29 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate70%19W / 8L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day73.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$26
sports 11% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +22.3% +10.7% 70% 26% -6.9%
≤30d 27 +22.3% +10.7% 70% 26% -6.9%
≤90d 27 +22.3% +10.7% 70% 26% -6.9%
all 27 +22.3% +10.7% 70% 26% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover73.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.7% 26% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here +0.1% 11% -15.8%
15% -9.6% 11% -23.9%
20% -18.4% 7% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.44 per $1 lost it wins $4.44
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses19 / 8
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage3d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day73.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $70 $0 -0%
Colombia leading at halftime? Jun 18 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $78 +$1 +2%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $279 +$1 +0%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $151 −$1 -1%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $75 −$1 -1%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $175 +$7 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +7%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $30 +$1 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 +$1 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$7 +39%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -9%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$6 +54%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $44 +$1 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 $0 -1%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 14m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 15m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 15m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 15m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 17m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 18m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 20m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 20m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 12¢ $19 20m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 20m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 11¢ $0 21m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 21m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 21m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $31 25m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 26m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 26m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 16¢ $9 30m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 30m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 30m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 30m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 30m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 31m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 31m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 31m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 31m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 45¢ $19 32m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 45¢ $10 32m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $10 34m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 46¢ $10 34m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.00 · official $2.00 (match) · 237 history records