Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:26:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5a21…9318
other · 425 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$166,799 +158%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,454 · open +$70,425
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$339,882
Realized−$3,454
Unrealized+$70,425
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses37 / 41
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions497
Markets (closed)78 / 425
History coverage1d
Avg bet$248
Trades / day2758.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 497 History 78 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,454
7 days−$3,454
14 days−$3,454
30 days−$3,454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 90¢ 94¢ $27,677 $29,117 +$1,440 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $1T at market close on IPO day? Yes 89¢ 99¢ $18,754 $20,878 +$2,123 (+11%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $16,233 $16,358 +$125 (+1%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 59¢ 99¢ $6,721 $11,235 +$4,514 (+67%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 55¢ 81¢ $5,531 $8,111 +$2,580 (+47%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Yes 90¢ 92¢ $6,753 $6,891 +$138 (+2%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 75¢ $5,886 $6,496 +$611 (+10%)
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 43¢ $6,202 $6,020 −$182 (-3%)
Will Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more? Yes 13¢ 99¢ $709 $5,332 +$4,623 (+652%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 57¢ $4,869 $5,055 +$186 (+4%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? No 83¢ 98¢ $3,902 $4,623 +$722 (+18%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No 83¢ 86¢ $3,669 $3,787 +$118 (+3%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 88¢ 100¢ $2,920 $3,317 +$397 (+14%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? No 87¢ 98¢ $2,747 $3,102 +$355 (+13%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 76¢ 88¢ $2,553 $2,952 +$399 (+16%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 80¢ 96¢ $2,375 $2,857 +$481 (+20%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of June? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,768 $2,815 +$47 (+2%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 89¢ 99¢ $2,359 $2,626 +$267 (+11%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Yes 80¢ 96¢ $1,986 $2,388 +$402 (+20%)
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 44¢ 80¢ $1,254 $2,282 +$1,028 (+82%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 5¢ 91¢ $123 $2,126 +$2,003 (+1629%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 30¢ 23¢ $2,714 $2,083 −$631 (-23%)
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $2,054 $2,057 +$3 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 17¢ $197 $2,005 +$1,808 (+917%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $1,976 $1,983 +$7 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $226 +$197 +87%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? Jun 12 $9 −$6 -63%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? Jun 12 $12 −$9 -76%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? Jun 12 $5 −$4 -75%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? Jun 12 $9 −$7 -81%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? Jun 12 $11 −$8 -76%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? Jun 12 $4 −$2 -65%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? Jun 12 $20 −$17 -87%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $155 +$10 +6%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $528 +$153 +29%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $774 +$111 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $146 −$50 -35%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $241 −$23 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $124 +$291 +235%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $404 +$103 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +102%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 −$7 -67%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$11 -68%
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 12 $129 +$77 +59%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 12 $170 +$57 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$46 +491%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be at least 55.0 in June? Jun 12 $138 +$21 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $64 +$118 +183%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $0 +$20 +11624%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $115 −$65 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$36 +261%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$50 +9845%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 12 $168 −$18 -11%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -78%
Will a player representing Turkiye be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 12 $50 −$49 -99%
Will a player representing France be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 12 $90 −$70 -78%
Will a player representing Egypt be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will a player representing Morocco be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 12 $50 −$49 -99%
Will a player representing Ecuador be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 12 $114 −$14 -12%
Will a player representing Croatia be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 12 $122 −$22 -18%
Will a player representing Sweden be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FI Jun 12 $121 −$21 -18%
Will a player representing Switzerland be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 12 $141 −$41 -29%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 35m? Jun 12 $145 −$144 -100%
Will Jordan Staal win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 12 $15 −$4 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 +$8 +543%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 98-99°F on Ju Jun 12 $2 +$8 +356%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 12 $15 −$5 -34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju Jun 12 $0 +$40 +18952%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $6 +$4 +61%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $15 −$5 -32%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15? Jun 12 $1,540 −$241 -16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 63% +$67,692
tech 21% −$3,738
world 5% −$5,075
finance 3% +$1,346
politics 2% +$2,652
crypto 2% +$413
weather 2% +$2,456
economics 1% −$92
sports 1% +$1,056
culture 0% +$261
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 21¢ $65 0m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on BUY No 80¢ $242 0m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 96¢ $29 0m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 96¢ $221 0m
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on BUY No 97¢ $39 0m
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day SELL Yes 1¢ $2 0m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 34¢ $12 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $11 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Russia? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Italy? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/Nor BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 97¢ $19 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be less SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe SELL Yes 96¢ $19 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le SELL Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $20 2m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+171.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 +199.9% +171.3% 47% 41% -28.9%
≤30d 78 +199.9% +171.3% 47% 41% -28.9%
≤90d 78 +199.9% +171.3% 47% 41% -28.9%
all 78 +199.9% +171.3% 47% 41% -28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2758.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +171.3% 41% -28.9%
10% ← realistic here +145.4% 38% -35.7%
15% +121.7% 32% -41.9%
20% +99.9% 31% -47.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339,882.47 · official $367,057.33 · 3500 history records