Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:42:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a22…17a6 world 366 markets active 1h ago coverage 140d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,742 (+5%) realized +$2,293 · open +$2,449
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate64%213W / 122L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$16,950now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days−$135
14 days−$126
30 days+$3,891
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$1,964
politics 36% +$715
other 19% +$2,622
economics 3% +$167
crypto 0% −$14
tech 0% +$18
finance 0% +$188
sports 0% $0
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -5.2% -14.3% 83% 17% -12.6%
≤30d 30 +33.8% +21.0% 80% 33% +14.5%
≤90d 235 -6.9% -15.8% 59% 41% -6.6%
all 335 -0.0% -9.5% 64% 43% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 43% -6.0%
10% -18.2% 27% -15.0%
15% -26.1% 18% -23.2%
20% -33.3% 11% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$80 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$16,950
Realized+$2,293
Unrealized+$2,449
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses213 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions31
Markets (closed)335 / 366
History coverage140d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 60¢ 90¢ $2,305 $3,472 +$1,167 (+51%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $3,060 $3,227 +$167 (+5%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 92¢ $1,550 $1,727 +$177 (+11%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 91¢ 92¢ $1,252 $1,272 +$20 (+2%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 64¢ 100¢ $652 $1,020 +$369 (+57%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 44¢ $369 $862 +$492 (+133%)
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $599 $704 +$105 (+17%)
Will Trump visit Greenland by December 31? No 78¢ 90¢ $500 $577 +$77 (+15%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $500 $526 +$26 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $500 $498 −$2 (-0%)
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 97¢ 96¢ $500 $495 −$5 (-1%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 74¢ $150 $335 +$185 (+123%)
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 90¢ 90¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? No 69¢ 62¢ $250 $226 −$24 (-10%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 83¢ 86¢ $200 $209 +$9 (+4%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? No 82¢ 97¢ $150 $177 +$27 (+18%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? No 46¢ 42¢ $170 $154 −$16 (-9%)
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? No 92¢ 92¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 35¢ 42¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 22? No 92¢ 99¢ $100 $108 +$8 (+8%)
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 96¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 53¢ 42¢ $130 $105 −$25 (-19%)
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? No 64¢ 61¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $1,966 +$65 +3%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $500 +$12 +2%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $1,001 +$35 +4%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $231 +$18 +8%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $30 +$16 +52%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $280 −$280 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $100 +$410 +410%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $150 −$150 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $180 −$95 -53%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 10 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? Jun 10 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 04 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in May? Jun 04 $100 +$15 +15%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $50 +$127 +255%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? Jun 04 $300 +$266 +89%
US takes a stake in Spirit Airlines by May 31? Jun 04 $902 +$61 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $770 +$34 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $2,060 +$324 +16%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in May? Jun 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $108 +$92 +85%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31? Jun 01 $180 +$20 +11%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $251 +$18 +7%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $405 +$2,098 +518%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,073 +$771 +37%
Will Tulsi Gabbard leave the Trump administration before 2027? May 23 $360 +$9 +2%
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 10+ times during the next Prime Ministe May 22 $100 +$9 +9%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $2,007 +$179 +9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 17 $40 +$19 +47%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 17 $869 −$54 -6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 17 $500 +$57 +11%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 17 $30 +$11 +35%
Andy Burnham out as Mayor of Greater Manchester by May 31? May 14 $30 −$1 -2%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? May 14 $948 +$7 +1%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $201 +$37 +18%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 12 $25 +$7 +29%
Will the Liberal Democrats win at least 800 council seat elections in May 12 $25 +$20 +80%
Will Green Party win a mayorship in the 2026 United Kingdom local elec May 12 $180 +$43 +24%
Will Reform UK win control of the most London borough councils? May 12 $300 +$17 +6%
Will the Green Party win at least 500 council seat elections in the 20 May 12 $1,313 +$171 +13%
SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? May 08 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Labour Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 2 May 08 $446 −$446 -100%
Will Reform UK win at least 2000 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 08 $154 −$146 -94%
Will the Green Party win at least 700 council seat elections in the 20 May 07 $675 −$491 -73%
Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in May? May 06 $154 −$154 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 06 $157 +$12 +8%
Will the Labour Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 2 May 06 $473 −$470 -100%
Will Reform UK win at least 1800 council seat elections in the 2026 Un May 05 $462 −$460 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 94¢ $100 1h
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $500 1h
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 64¢ $100 1h
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $100 1h
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $50 1h
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $500 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $250 1h
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 92¢ $150 1h
Will Qatar sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY No 90¢ $300 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? BUY No 93¢ $1,000 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 35¢ $100 1h
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,004 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $500 2h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 56¢ $254 2d
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 96¢ $965 2d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 65¢ $130 3d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 64¢ $507 3d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $103 3d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 72¢ $10 4d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 72¢ $6 4d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 72¢ $6 4d
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 97¢ $1,001 4d
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 73¢ $253 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 62¢ $30 6d
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( BUY No 65¢ $30 6d
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY No 98¢ $200 6d
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I BUY No 67¢ $30 6d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 90¢ $300 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $150 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,949.88 · official $16,949.89 (match) · 1539 history records