Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a22…c3b5 sports 874 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$34,307 (-11%) realized −$34,285 · open −$22
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate29%250W / 621L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$346per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$216est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$428now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$451
7 days+$451
14 days+$451
30 days+$404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$30,415
other 17% +$2,305
crypto 7% −$5,382
world 0% −$812
economics 0% −$166
politics 0% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +367.6% +323.1% 100% 100% +323.1%
≤30d 5 +41.4% +27.9% 40% 40% +149.4%
≤90d 87 +8.7% -1.6% 41% 38% -27.3%
all 871 -15.4% -23.4% 29% 27% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 27% -19.8%
10% -30.7% 25% -27.5%
15% -37.4% 23% -34.5%
20% -43.6% 20% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$494 vs −$255 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$428
Realized−$34,285
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses250 / 621
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$216
Open positions3
Markets (closed)871 / 874
History coverage244d
Avg bet$346
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 871 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 Over 26¢ 26¢ $270 $265 −$5 (-2%)
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Yes 28¢ 26¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Yes $80 $73 −$7 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 76 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $123 +$451 +368%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $25 +$35 +139%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Mauthausen: Hugo Gaston vs Darwin Blanch Apr 29 $326 −$324 -99%
Ostrava: Jonas Forejtek vs Hynek Barton Apr 29 $191 +$134 +70%
La Bisbal: Xinyu Wang vs Kaitlin Quevedo Apr 28 $137 +$55 +40%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) Apr 26 $828 −$814 -98%
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti Apr 26 $351 −$342 -97%
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova Apr 26 $721 −$291 -40%
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff Apr 26 $357 +$294 +82%
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry Apr 26 $387 −$25 -6%
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 23 $100 −$99 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $125 −$123 -98%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns Apr 15 $229 −$226 -99%
Sharks vs. Predators: O/U 4.5 Apr 14 $396 −$396 -100%
Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5 Apr 14 $325 +$72 +22%
Red Wings vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 Apr 14 $261 +$63 +24%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Apr 13 $248 −$12 -5%
Tallahassee: Liam Draxl vs Kaylan Bigun Apr 13 $250 −$216 -86%
Barcelona Open: Nuno Borges vs Adrian Mannarino Apr 13 $35 −$34 -97%
BMW Open: Alexander Blockx vs Yannick Hanfmann Apr 13 $571 −$276 -48%
Oeiras 3: Robin Montgomery vs Mayar Sherif Apr 13 $100 −$29 -29%
Barcelona Open: Cameron Norrie vs Stan Wawrinka Apr 13 $305 −$184 -60%
Oeiras 3: Valentin Royer vs Marco Cecchinato Apr 13 $481 −$4 -1%
BMW Open: Emilio Nava vs Ben Shelton Apr 13 $95 +$233 +245%
Barcelona Open: Reilly Opelka vs Ethan Quinn Apr 13 $100 −$12 -12%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 13 $232 +$77 +33%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $169 −$165 -98%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $445 −$134 -30%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Apr 11 $130 +$99 +76%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 11 $141 −$5 -4%
Devils vs. Red Wings: O/U 6.5 Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Utah: O/U 6.5 Apr 11 $100 +$39 +39%
Blues vs. Blackhawks: O/U 7.5 Apr 11 $101 −$101 -100%
Wild vs. Predators: O/U 6.5 Apr 11 $123 +$81 +66%
Blues vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5 Apr 11 $99 −$99 -100%
Oilers vs. Kings: O/U 6.5 Apr 11 $65 +$34 +52%
Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $50 +$73 +145%
Capitals vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5 Apr 11 $55 −$55 -100%
Lightning vs. Bruins: O/U 3.5 Apr 11 $55 +$33 +59%
Al Okhdood SC vs. Al Nassr Saudi Club: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $122 +$60 +49%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $40 +$82 +206%
FC Barcelona vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $56 +$38 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 01 $4 +$3 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Apr 01 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 01 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 01 $2 +$3 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Apr 01 $114 −$112 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $102 1h
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY Yes $82 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $276 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 21¢ $123 5h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina $2 14d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 32¢ $61 15d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $61 15d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $25 15d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 20¢ $20 15d
Mauthausen: Hugo Gaston vs Darwin Blanch BUY Hugo Gaston 80¢ $24 58d
Mauthausen: Hugo Gaston vs Darwin Blanch BUY Hugo Gaston 80¢ $302 58d
Ostrava: Jonas Forejtek vs Hynek Barton BUY Jonas Forejtek 62¢ $139 59d
La Bisbal: Xinyu Wang vs Kaitlin Quevedo SELL Xinyu Wang 100¢ $137 59d
Ostrava: Jonas Forejtek vs Hynek Barton BUY Jonas Forejtek 50¢ $53 59d
La Bisbal: Xinyu Wang vs Kaitlin Quevedo SELL Kaitlin Quevedo 41¢ $55 59d
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) BUY FC Internazionale Milano 42¢ $828 61d
Madrid Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Lorenzo Musetti BUY Tallon Griekspoor 11¢ $351 61d
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Elise Mertens 92¢ $77 61d
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Elise Mertens 83¢ $70 61d
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova SELL Karolina Pliskova 17¢ $353 61d
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 31¢ $574 61d
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Karolina Pliskova 31¢ $76 61d
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff SELL Coco Gauff 100¢ $651 61d
Madrid Open: Sorana Cirstea vs Coco Gauff BUY Coco Gauff 54¢ $357 61d
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry SELL Tomas Etcheverry 54¢ $362 61d
Madrid Open: Dino Prizmic vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 57¢ $387 61d
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Patrick Kypson 54¢ $100 64d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $125 65d
Trail Blazers vs. Suns BUY Suns 59¢ $229 72d
Sharks vs. Predators: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $396 73d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $428.48 · official $428.48 (match) · 2307 history records