Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:57:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a27…bcde politics 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%9W / 64L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$154per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 49% −$9
other 25% −$1
sports 17% −$5
culture 6% $0
crypto 2% −$2
economics 2% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +3.1% -6.7% 100% 0% -6.7%
≤30d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 33% 0% -9.0%
all 73 -8.7% -17.4% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -9.7%
10% -25.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses9 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)73 / 74
History coverage275d
Avg bet$154
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 73 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $88 $88 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $85 +$3 +3%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $87 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 06 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 02 $92 −$1 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $83 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $1 $0 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 19? Feb 21 $87 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $3 $0 +2%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $624 −$1 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $84 −$1 -1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 10 $88 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 01 $617 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $86 +$1 +1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $88 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 24 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 24 $275 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 22 $88 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 21 $89 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 19 $89 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 17 $621 −$1 -0%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by January 14? Jan 15 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 13? Jan 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $1 $0 -17%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 13 $90 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $195 −$1 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $184 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 10 $604 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 08 $183 $0 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 05 $91 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $98 $0 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $184 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Lorie K. Logan as the next Fed chair? Dec 30 $88 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 28 $89 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 26 $1 $0 -12%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 26 $89 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $92 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $93 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 21 $1 $0 -33%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 21 $189 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 20 $1 $0 -14%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 20 $93 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 18 $64 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $3 $0 -10%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on December 15? Dec 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 10 $97 $0 -0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 08 $90 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $88 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 97¢ $85 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $88 9d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $89 17d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $87 20d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $87 26d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $86 111d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $87 114d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 114d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on February 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $83 118d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 118d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 122d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 19? BUY No 100¢ $87 126d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 128d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 128d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $86 128d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $86 129d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 129d
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 131d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 131d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $83 131d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $83 132d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 134d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $88 134d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $88 137d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $87 144d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $87 145d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 145d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 147d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.33 · official $88.33 (match) · 280 history records