Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:46:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5A 0x5a27…dae3 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 48d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+36%) realized +$73 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 48d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$120
culture 15% −$30
sports 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +29.0% +16.7% 50% 50% +112.6%
≤30d 2 +29.0% +16.7% 50% 50% +112.6%
≤90d 5 -48.4% -53.3% 20% 20% +30.8%
all 5 -48.4% -53.3% 20% 20% +30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.3% 20% +30.8%
10% -57.8% 20% +18.3%
15% -61.8% 20% +6.8%
20% -65.6% 20% -3.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +45% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt +45% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$161 vs −$20 · ×8.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.01 per $1 lost it wins $2.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage48d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 +$161 +158%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $31 −$30 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $263 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 2d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 48d
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 48d
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.46 · official $14.46 (match) · 11 history records