Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5A 0x5a28…8704 other 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$307per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$17
politics 35% −$13
sports 10% +$24
world 2% $0
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 91 -2.8% -12.0% 7% 2% -9.6%
all 108 -3.4% -12.6% 11% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 5% -9.5%
10% -21.0% 3% -18.2%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.1%
20% -35.6% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)108 / 111
History coverage118d
Avg bet$307
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 22 $37 $0 -0%
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $223 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $239 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $272 $0 +0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $235 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $559 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? May 05 $53 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $236 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $424 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $561 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $428 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $259 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $267 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $217 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $519 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $260 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $283 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 24 $248 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $225 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $289 $0 -0%
Will the Anaheim Ducks win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 22 $294 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $255 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $643 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $246 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 20 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $290 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $293 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $291 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $560 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $266 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $854 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 18 $239 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $296 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $530 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $268 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $258 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $315 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $275 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $245 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $296 +$1 +0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $566 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $8,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $41 2h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 2h
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 2h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $37 2h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $37 3d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i SELL No 100¢ $30 12d
Will James Cleverly be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom i BUY No 100¢ $30 16d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $313 22d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $314 31d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $222 32d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $223 32d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $239 33d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $239 38d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $259 38d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $259 39d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $17 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $80 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $14 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $20 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $15 42d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $272 46d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 47d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 47d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $304 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.90 · official $116.90 (match) · 356 history records