Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:58:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a29…c217 other 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$145 (-0%) realized −$13 · open −$132
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate93%80W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$491per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$4,023now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$14
14 days+$151
30 days+$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$3
other 32% +$200
economics 14% +$63
crypto 13% −$560
finance 1% +$1
tech 1% +$3
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤90d 26 +1.3% -8.3% 100% 0% -7.8%
all 86 -1.1% -10.5% 93% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -9.9%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.4%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$131 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$4,023
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$132
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses80 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage226d
Avg bet$491
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 98¢ 94¢ $3,189 $3,060 −$129 (-4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 87¢ 86¢ $328 $326 −$2 (-1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $318 $319 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? No 98¢ 98¢ $320 $318 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 24 $308 +$2 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 23 $3,091 +$9 +0%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 22 $321 +$3 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,839 +$61 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $4,325 +$54 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 17 $1,182 +$21 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 09 $319 +$3 +1%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 25 $6,899 +$234 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $289 +$3 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? May 16 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 14 $255 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? May 01 $153 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 23 $131 +$1 +1%
Predict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch? Apr 22 $107 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 17 $147 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 17 $187 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Apr 17 $198 +$5 +3%
USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 13 $111 +$1 +1%
Extended FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 10 $71 +$2 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? Apr 08 $131 +$1 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 08 $262 +$3 +1%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 07 $568 +$18 +3%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Apr 05 $91 +$2 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 28 $329 +$1 +0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 28 $239 +$1 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 27 $163 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Mar 27 $90 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Mar 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Mar 23 $76 +$2 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 19 $195 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 15 $324 +$2 +0%
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 11 $53 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Mar 02 $53 $0 +0%
Extended FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 25 $53 $0 +0%
Rainbow FDV above $800M one day after launch? Feb 04 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 February 2-8? Feb 03 $377 −$377 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in January? Feb 03 $340 +$1 +0%
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? Feb 02 $66 $0 +0%
Rainbow FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jan 30 $68 $0 +0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jan 30 $147 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Jan 30 $438 −$205 -47%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $923 +$3 +0%
Will the Fed Cut–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Oct–Dec–Jan)? Jan 28 $195 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 19-25? Jan 28 $355 +$5 +1%
Zama FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 28 $290 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jan 27 $282 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 January 19-25? Jan 22 $19 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in January? Jan 19 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $328 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $309 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $3,189 32h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $318 44h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $176 2d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $41 2d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $103 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $8 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $0 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $224 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $224 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $225 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $0 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $225 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $226 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $227 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $227 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $230 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $225 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $230 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $230 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $100 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $332 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 100¢ $149 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $308 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $259 7d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $298 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $2,405 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,022.96 · official $4,022.96 (match) · 500 history records