Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a2b…c3cb crypto 343 markets active 11h ago coverage 250d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$53 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$50
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate38%130W / 211L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$118per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$550now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,138
7 days+$1,419
14 days+$2,083
30 days+$1,887
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$1,436
sports 26% +$2,905
other 19% −$661
weather 12% −$1,109
economics 0% −$79
world 0% −$113
culture 0% −$27
politics 0% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 +2.4% -7.3% 45% 42% -1.3%
≤30d 85 +3.7% -6.2% 44% 41% +0.8%
≤90d 212 -19.5% -27.2% 34% 31% -8.1%
all 341 -13.7% -21.9% 38% 35% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 35% -10.9%
10% -29.4% 31% -19.4%
15% -36.2% 29% -27.2%
20% -42.5% 26% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -15% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$140 vs −$89 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

250d coverage
Net worth$550
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$50
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses130 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions1
Markets (closed)341 / 343
History coverage250d
Avg bet$118
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 341 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 72¢ $500 $550 +$50 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $26 +$136 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $42 +$91 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $62 +$79 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $187 +$183 +98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $354 −$118 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $209 +$296 +141%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 14 $155 −$155 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 14 $294 −$294 -100%
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus Jun 14 $204 +$349 +171%
Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Montgomery (+1.5) Jun 14 $203 −$14 -7%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova Jun 14 $245 +$141 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$70 +67%
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $103 +$3 +3%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $203 +$243 +119%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $205 +$970 +473%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Eva Vedder Jun 13 $840 +$487 +58%
Ilkley: Celine Naef vs Akasha Urhobo Jun 13 $390 −$113 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 13 $106 −$106 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $208 −$156 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 13 $208 −$208 -100%
Ilkley: Harmony Tan vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 12 $394 +$467 +118%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $254 +$355 +139%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $198 +$151 +76%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $204 −$204 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $305 −$305 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $103 −$103 -100%
ITF Wichita: Blake Ellis vs Sebastian Gorzny Jun 12 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $208 +$210 +101%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Julia Grabher Jun 11 $236 +$374 +158%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 11 $72 −$72 -100%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 11 $204 +$3 +2%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $203 +$142 +70%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $695 +$495 +71%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $396 +$96 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 10 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 10 $105 −$105 -100%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 10 $223 −$223 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $157 −$157 -100%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Jeline Vandromme Jun 10 $204 −$204 -100%
Cattolica: Alexander Vasilev vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 10 $102 −$102 -100%
Ilkley: Taylah Preston vs Harmony Tan Jun 10 $151 −$151 -100%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Maddison Inglis Jun 10 $204 −$204 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Marc Cucurella score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $505 10h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 7¢ $51 11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $26 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $133 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $42 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $141 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $62 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $370 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $187 14h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Katarzyna Kawa 46¢ $85 14h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Katarzyna Kawa 80¢ $151 15h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Lucia Bronzetti 31¢ $152 15h
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lucia Bronzetti 40¢ $204 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 89¢ $505 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 35¢ $209 20h
Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Montgomery (+1.5) SELL Montgomery 49¢ $189 23h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova SELL Robin Montgomery 49¢ $386 23h
Set Handicap: Krejcikova (-1.5) vs Montgomery (+1.5) BUY Montgomery 51¢ $203 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $8 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $6 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $155 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $175 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 25h
ITF Guimaraes: Aliona Falei vs Savannah Broadus BUY Savannah Broadus 36¢ $204 25h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $106 26h
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Barbora Krejcikova BUY Robin Montgomery 30¢ $245 32h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 33h
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Lucia Bronzetti 45¢ $203 38h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Lanlana Tararudee 49¢ $294 39h
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel SELL Dane Sweeny 100¢ $1,175 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $549.61 · official $599.61 · 803 history records