Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:37:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a2d…d45c other 155 markets active 2h ago coverage 364d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$290 (-14%) realized −$268 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate26%39W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$33
sports 14% −$109
world 12% −$67
crypto 5% −$45
weather 4% −$26
politics 3% −$9
tech 1% −$7
finance 0% −$2
economics 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 152 -29.8% -36.5% 26% 12% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 12% -22.3%
10% -42.6% 8% -29.8%
15% -48.1% 5% -36.6%
20% -53.2% 3% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

364d coverage
Net worth$148
Realized−$268
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses39 / 113
Open positions3
Markets (closed)152 / 155
History coverage364d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 22? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 22? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? Feb 20 $60 +$16 +27%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Feb 20 $27 −$9 -32%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? Feb 20 $60 −$41 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Feb 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 06 $13 +$2 +14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? Jan 02 $42 +$4 +11%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 21 $30 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? Dec 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 11 $4 +$1 +16%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $99 −$6 -6%
Over $1.5M committed to the Makina public sale? Dec 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 03 $5 $0 +3%
Maduro out by March 31, 2026? Dec 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Over $2M committed to the Makina public sale? Dec 01 $21 +$2 +11%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Dec 01 $5 $0 +5%
Will a balloon deflate during the 2025 Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade? Dec 01 $5 $0 +5%
DEL: Eisbaeren Berlin vs. Koelner Haie Nov 30 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Russia capture Yampil' by November 30? Nov 29 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elijah Sarratt win the 2025–2026 Biletnikoff Award? Nov 28 $1 −$1 -92%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Nov 28 $1 −$1 -93%
Will AZ win on 2025-11-27? Nov 28 $4 +$1 +19%
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. East Carolina Pirates Nov 28 $4 +$2 +43%
AS Roma vs. FC Midtjylland: O/U 2.5 Nov 28 $3 +$2 +96%
Will HNK Rijeka win on 2025-11-27? Nov 28 $5 +$5 +85%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Nov 28 $183 +$9 +5%
Richmond Spiders vs. Furman Paladins Nov 27 $128 −$28 -22%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $335 before 2026?? Nov 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Nov 27 $6 $0 +1%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Nov 27 $3 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Imperial (BO3) Nov 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Imperial - Map 1 Winner Nov 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will FK Dynamo Kyiv win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will RKS Raków Częstochowa win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will BK Häcken win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ħamrun Spartans FC win on 2025-11-27? Nov 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday? Nov 26 $16 −$8 -48%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in the first hour? Nov 25 $444 $0 -0%
Will StoneX Group (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings? Nov 25 $4 $0 +6%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on November 24? Nov 25 $10 $0 +4%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 650k+ BTC by November 30? Nov 24 $40 +$15 +38%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $145 +$16 +11%
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $4 −$1 -27%
Over $400M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $3 −$2 -71%
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19? Nov 20 $3 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $102 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 28¢ $52 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 10h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $21 10h
Will Jack Doherty be sentenced to no prison time? SELL Yes 97¢ $76 121d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $18 121d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $19 121d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $20 128d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 176d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 177d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $4 177d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Demoor 32¢ $10 182d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 82¢ $20 186d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 188d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 189d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 189d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 190d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 190d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 191d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by January 31? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 192d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 192d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 193d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 193d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $9 193d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia in 2025? BUY No 94¢ $10 193d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by March 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 193d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $147.80 · official $148.56 (match) · 708 history records