Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5A 0x5a2e…d82c crypto 1465 markets active 1h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$22 (+1%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate91%1327W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$12
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 245 +5.6% -4.5% 91% 72% -3.7%
≤30d 273 +5.0% -5.0% 91% 67% -4.3%
≤90d 487 +3.6% -6.2% 89% 76% -5.8%
all 1464 +1.1% -8.5% 91% 25% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 25% -9.1%
10% -17.3% 1% -17.8%
15% -25.3% 0% -25.7%
20% -32.6% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1327 / 137
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1464 / 1465
History coverage124d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1464 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4? No 97¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 7h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 48 and 49 million views on day 4 BUY No 97¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.58 · official $2.58 (match) · 3273 history records