Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:28:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5A 0x5a30…c241 sports 377 markets active 2h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%198W / 178L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 74% +$17
sports 25% −$24
other 1% −$2
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 57 +4.0% -5.9% 93% 18% -8.2%
all 376 -5.1% -14.2% 53% 40% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 40% -9.8%
10% -22.4% 39% -18.4%
15% -29.9% 39% -26.3%
20% -36.8% 39% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses198 / 178
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)376 / 377
History coverage224d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 376 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 177 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 28? Jun 29 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 25? Jun 26 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 23? Jun 23 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 21? Jun 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 21? Jun 22 $64 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun Jun 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 10? Jun 10 $90 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $85 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $90 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? Jun 02 $85 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 2? Jun 02 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 30? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 21 $68 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 68°F or higher on May May 21 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 17? May 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 58°F or higher on May 18? May 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on May 16? May 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 17? May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 78°F or higher on May 13? May 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 74°F or higher on May 13? May 13 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 8? May 09 $15 +$6 +41%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 6°C on May 8? May 09 $59 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C or higher on May 8? May 08 $8 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 7? May 06 $40 +$6 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 78°F or higher on May 5? May 05 $70 $0 +0%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on May 4? May 04 $76 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on April 29? Apr 30 $59 +$1 +1%
Spread: Rockets (-5.5) Apr 29 $1 +$1 +86%
Rockets vs. Lakers: O/U 207.5 Apr 29 $2 +$2 +93%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on April 21? Apr 29 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on April 21? Apr 29 $9 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5 Apr 29 $5 +$4 +86%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Apr 29 $5 +$4 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on April 21? Apr 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 21? Apr 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 21? Apr 29 $20 $0 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 62°F or higher on April 19? Apr 21 $19 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 50°F or higher on April 18? Apr 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 15? Apr 18 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on April 15 Apr 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 8? Apr 15 $3 +$1 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 8? Apr 15 $5 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on April 9? Apr 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on April 8? Apr 15 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on April 9? Apr 15 $10 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C or higher on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $90 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $90 33h
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 88°F or higher on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $90 4d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 99¢ $20 6d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $50 6d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $14 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $50 8d
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $27 8d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $90 10d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $50 11d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun BUY No 99¢ $17 17d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Jun BUY No 100¢ $40 17d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $90 19d
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $85 20d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $40 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $50 21d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $35 27d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 2? BUY No 99¢ $5 27d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $50 27d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 30d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 30d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 82°F or higher on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 30d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma SELL Yes 100¢ $50 38d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma SELL Yes 100¢ $20 38d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma BUY Yes 96¢ $48 39d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma BUY Yes 97¢ $19 39d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 58°F or higher on May 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 42d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 58°F or higher on May 18? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 43d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C or below on May 17? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.91 · official $89.91 (match) · 626 history records