Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:56:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5A 0x5a34…6c6c other 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$3,075 (+19%) realized +$3,004 · open +$71
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +26% what you keep after slip
Net edge+26%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%61W / 109L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$315now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$775
7 days−$775
14 days−$149
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% +$1,696
crypto 26% +$362
sports 18% +$785
tech 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -59.7% -63.6% 24% 24% -27.1%
≤30d 60 -11.3% -19.7% 15% 15% -20.1%
≤90d 101 +11.8% +1.2% 23% 21% -6.3%
all 170 +39.5% +26.2% 36% 32% +2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.2% 32% +2.7%
10% +14.1% 31% -7.1%
15% +3.1% 28% -16.1%
20% -7.0% 24% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$170 vs −$70 · ×2.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$315
Realized+$3,004
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses61 / 109
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions10
Markets (closed)170 / 180
History coverage146d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 15¢ $27 $118 +$91 (+337%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $61 $84 +$23 (+38%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $47 $38 −$9 (-19%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $27 $15 −$12 (-46%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-45%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $17 $3 −$14 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $379 −$379 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $571 −$571 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $259 +$197 +76%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $302 +$83 +27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $376 +$86 +23%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $254 −$139 -55%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $610 +$785 +129%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 20 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $125 −$125 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $110 +$71 +65%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $151 +$63 +42%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $181 +$313 +172%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 14 $154 −$154 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $31 +$569 +1845%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 06 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 06 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 06 $114 −$114 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 06 $92 −$92 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 06 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 06 $60 −$60 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 06 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 06 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 06 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 06 $40 −$40 -100%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 06 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 06 $88 −$88 -100%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $48 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $379 18h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $457 19h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 56¢ $259 21h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $302 23h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 11¢ $106 27h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $571 47h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $57 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $376 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 23¢ $115 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 43¢ $610 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $254 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $76 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $110 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $151 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 8¢ $125 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 19¢ $51 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 40¢ $41 5d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 5d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $31 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 7d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $31 7d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 8d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 8d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 52¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $314.90 · official $314.93 (match) · 418 history records