Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:50:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a35…5732 crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,773 (-4%) realized −$5,840 · open +$14
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate36%24W / 42L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,393per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$392est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$846now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,075
7 days+$1,075
14 days+$1,075
30 days+$1,705
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$2,834
sports 13% −$2,841
other 9% +$54
politics 3% −$34
crypto 0% −$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +27.4% +15.2% 100% 100% +15.2%
≤30d 3 +181.7% +154.8% 67% 67% +11.8%
≤90d 43 -8.7% -17.4% 42% 21% -11.9%
all 66 -23.4% -30.7% 36% 20% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -30.7% 20% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -37.4% 17% -21.1%
15% -43.4% 9% -28.7%
20% -49.0% 8% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$3,873) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -53% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$389 vs −$380 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$846
Realized−$5,840
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses24 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$392
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage155d
Avg bet$2,393
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $832 $846 +$14 (+2%)
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Team Falcons 20¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $3,929 +$1,075 +27%
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website? May 29 $548 +$3,385 +618%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $2,755 −$2,755 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 14 $2,702 +$53 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $6,796 −$558 -8%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 08 $1,020 −$712 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 08 $8,834 −$1,986 -22%
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? May 05 $70 −$70 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026? May 01 $4,389 +$117 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 29 $4,249 +$140 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 28 $3,873 +$377 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $17,337 −$731 -4%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Apr 24 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 24 $6,080 −$370 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 23 $6 +$6 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Apr 23 $515 −$240 -47%
Weed rescheduled by June 30? Apr 23 $798 −$531 -67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $20,618 −$607 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 21 $7,394 −$842 -11%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $7,102 −$2,044 -29%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 17 $5,444 $0 +0%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $1,050 +$350 +33%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 16 $4,489 +$1,023 +23%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 15 $4,523 −$34 -1%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $635 +$776 +122%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $3,067 +$708 +23%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $2,566 −$661 -26%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 05 $17,695 +$786 +4%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 04 $2,066 +$99 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Apr 03 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 03 $37 −$30 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 03 $30 +$1 +2%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Apr 03 $4,668 +$15 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 27 $2 +$1 +82%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 27 $5 −$3 -66%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group B Mar 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Jets vs. Panthers Mar 24 $783 −$783 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jan 31 $675 +$119 +18%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs PARIVISION (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jan 31 $513 +$161 +31%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 31 $8,472 −$2,019 -24%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jan 31 $786 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 29 $18 −$18 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jan 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? Jan 29 $650 +$131 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $249 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $16 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $12 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $7 1h
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $481 1h
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 78¢ $3,929 7d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY No 88¢ $1 31d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY No 88¢ $1,938 31d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY No 88¢ $49 31d
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? BUY No 88¢ $767 31d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,755 31d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2,702 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2,699 34d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $2,288 37d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs SELL Fnatic 10¢ $309 37d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs BUY Fnatic 33¢ $1,020 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $2,999 37d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $3,489 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $3,469 38d
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? BUY No $20 42d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 42d
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? BUY No $50 42d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $845.78 · official $845.78 (match) · 346 history records