Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a35…fc8e world 130 markets active 8h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4,495 (-28%) realized −$4,439 · open −$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate21%27W / 101L
Whale WR14%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day5.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$67now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days−$387
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$707
other 34% −$2,728
tech 8% −$427
economics 7% −$441
politics 3% +$123
crypto 2% −$217
finance 1% −$31
sports 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +80.7% +63.5% 33% 33% +101.2%
≤30d 13 -19.8% -27.5% 8% 8% -43.6%
≤90d 41 -40.6% -46.2% 15% 12% -47.5%
all 128 -14.9% -23.0% 21% 14% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 14% -33.9%
10% -30.3% 11% -40.2%
15% -37.1% 9% -46.0%
20% -43.2% 7% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 14% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$85 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$67
Realized−$4,439
Unrealized−$56
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses27 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)14%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)128 / 130
History coverage583d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day5.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $106 $49 −$57 (-53%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $17 $17 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 +$19 +442%
Exact Score: Australia 3 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30? May 31 $132 −$43 -32%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 28 $560 −$294 -52%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 28 $14 −$8 -54%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $38 −$7 -19%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? May 28 $21 −$4 -18%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 27 $9 $0 -6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $29 −$26 -90%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $16 −$12 -78%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 25 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 24 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $177 +$103 +58%
Will Trump endorse Ken Paxton for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? May 19 $103 +$103 +100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Apr 29 $272 −$272 -100%
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? Apr 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Gold close between $3900 and $4000 at the end of 2025? Apr 29 $4 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Apr 29 $41 −$30 -74%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Apr 29 $34 −$34 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Apr 29 $632 −$74 -12%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 23, 2026 (ET)? Apr 29 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30? Apr 29 $522 −$432 -83%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 21? Apr 29 $62 −$62 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Apr 29 $31 −$31 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 3? Apr 29 $31 −$31 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by October 31? Apr 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 18, 2026? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 12? Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 13? Apr 29 $95 −$95 -100%
US strikes Iran by October 3? Apr 29 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by October 31? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 29 $28 −$4 -16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 28 $19 +$10 +50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 23 $119 −$30 -25%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 23 $269 −$165 -61%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 22 $2 $0 +6%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $153 −$17 -11%
Will the Senate pass the SAVE America Act (H.R. 7296)? Apr 01 $12 +$2 +15%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 26 $66 −$11 -16%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 26 $18 −$7 -35%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 29? Mar 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on November 28? Mar 20 $82 −$82 -100%
Will a Gulf State strike Iran by March 7? Mar 09 $155 −$104 -67%
US forces enter Iran by March 7? Mar 05 $53 −$4 -7%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 04 $27 −$7 -27%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7? Mar 03 $15 −$9 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on March 7? Mar 03 $20 −$15 -75%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $14 −$4 -24%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 03 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 7h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $17 7h
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66.56 · official $66.56 (match) · 3087 history records