Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:40:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a36…b39a world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 82% −$4
other 4% $0
politics 4% $0
sports 3% +$1
crypto 2% +$1
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 10 -2.7% -12.0% 10% 0% -10.9%
≤90d 12 -2.2% -11.5% 25% 0% -10.4%
all 31 -0.1% -9.6% 52% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 3% -10.0%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage486d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $32 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $35 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $38 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $30 −$1 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 21 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $12 −$3 -24%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 20 $9 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 20 $75 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 28 $8 $0 -5%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 08 $5 $0 -3%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 08 $3 $0 -13%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jun 07 $3 $0 +4%
Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2025 Norway Chess tournament? Jun 07 $7 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 06 $1 $0 +5%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 04 $7 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $7 $0 +7%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 08 $1 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 19 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $9 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 44°F or below on February 25 Mar 04 $8 $0 +1%
Will Kieran Culkin win Best Actor at the 2025 SAG Award for "A Real Pa Feb 23 $9 $0 -5%
Will Solana dip to $140 by February 28 2025? Feb 23 $9 +$1 +7%
Arkansas vs. Auburn Feb 20 $7 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $3 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $32 13h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $36 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $13 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $23 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $35 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $35 39h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $1 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $1 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $28 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $8 24d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $36 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 33¢ $29 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $30 25d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $36 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $23 28d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $13 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $2 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 22¢ $9 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 29¢ $12 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 29d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $9 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 30d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $17 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 89 history records