Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:43:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a39…0be3 crypto 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (94 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$25 (+4%) realized +$22 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate62%24W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day94.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$57
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (94 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -10.3% -18.9% 62% 49% -18.0%
≤30d 39 -10.3% -18.9% 62% 49% -18.0%
≤90d 39 -10.3% -18.9% 62% 49% -18.0%
all 39 -10.3% -18.9% 62% 49% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover94.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 49% -18.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 21% -25.8%
15% -33.7% 13% -33.0%
20% -40.2% 5% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses24 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day94.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Up 0¢ 14¢ $0 $3 +$3 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$17 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $37 −$16 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 +$6 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$7 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$9 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 17 $52 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $6 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 78¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $9 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $11 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $27 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $8 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.70 · official $3.30 (match) · 115 history records