Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:45:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a39…0c29 other 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$92
7 days−$56
14 days−$90
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$59
sports 33% −$39
finance 2% +$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -29.4% -36.1% 56% 33% -25.7%
≤30d 26 -12.1% -20.5% 65% 35% -21.9%
≤90d 26 -12.1% -20.5% 65% 35% -21.9%
all 29 -16.0% -24.0% 62% 34% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 34% -23.7%
10% -31.2% 24% -31.0%
15% -37.9% 14% -37.7%
20% -44.0% 7% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 65% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$16 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage125d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $49 −$45 -91%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 27 $71 −$50 -72%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $21 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $61 +$30 +50%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $60 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $26 +$4 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$5 +27%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $23 −$12 -52%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +20%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $38 −$36 -94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $55 −$9 -16%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $66 +$22 +33%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $45 −$9 -20%
Will George Russell get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Lando Norris get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pri Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will Charles Leclerc get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $10 +$2 +14%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 13 $6 $0 +2%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $1 $0 -28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $17 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $23 +$1 +4%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$3 +97%
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 08 $13 −$13 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Mar 06 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Feb 22 $1 +$1 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $47 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World SELL Yes 21¢ $20 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 79¢ $21 5h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 63¢ $10 29h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 73¢ $60 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down $1 40h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 100¢ $60 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $26 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $24 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 8d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 12d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes $2 12d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes $0 12d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 12d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL No 18¢ $4 12d
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 83¢ $10 12d
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 77¢ $38 12d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 84¢ $17 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G $9 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 60¢ $72 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 38¢ $35 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 38¢ $4 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 38¢ $3 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 38¢ $4 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $49 12d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 81¢ $40 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 79 history records