Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a3a…d93e world 45 markets active 0h ago coverage 541d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% +$10
world 25% −$4
sports 20% −$11
economics 10% $0
other 6% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 -2.2% -11.5% 24% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 28 -1.2% -10.6% 32% 0% -9.4%
all 44 -2.7% -12.0% 41% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 5% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 5% -18.3%
15% -28.1% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.1% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

541d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage541d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 15¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $99 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $4 $0 -12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $32 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $39 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $1 $0 -15%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $26 −$1 -3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $44 $0 -1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $40 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $27 −$3 -10%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 25 $149 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $34 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 22 $114 +$10 +8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 19 $105 −$4 -4%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 03 $84 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 02 $259 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 02 $280 +$1 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $79 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 30 $185 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 06 $1 $0 +4%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? Apr 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Apr 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times April 11–18? Apr 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $6 $0 +0%
St. Louis vs. Loyola Chicago Mar 04 $3 +$3 +75%
Utah Tech vs. Southern Utah Feb 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Monaco vs. Benfica end in a draw? Feb 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Bills win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 19 $9 $0 +2%
Will Matt Gaetz be appointed as the next Florida senator? Jan 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jan 03 $1 $0 +29%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire in 2024? Jan 03 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $43 29m
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $43 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 10h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 11h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 18h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $43 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $43 46h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $12 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $43 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $43 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $4 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $33 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $40 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $33 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $32 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $9 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $29 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $11 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records