Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:25:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
5A 0x5a3b…6b7e other 207 markets active 1h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-14%) realized −$41 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%56W / 126L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$14
14 days−$15
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 77% −$15
sports 20% −$20
world 2% −$5
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -63.1% -66.6% 4% 4% -65.8%
≤30d 29 -70.7% -73.5% 3% 3% -73.8%
≤90d 61 +0.0% -9.5% 23% 23% -6.2%
all 182 -5.9% -14.9% 31% 31% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 31% -23.0%
10% -23.0% 31% -30.3%
15% -30.5% 30% -37.1%
20% -37.3% 27% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$41
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses56 / 126
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions24
Markets (closed)182 / 207
History coverage238d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 182 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+36%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 115 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 -1%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $1 +$7 +650%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 3 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $1 +$5 +442%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 1 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 07 $1 +$13 +1290%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $1 $0 -12%
Exact Score: FC Bayern München 2 - 0 Paris Saint-Germain FC? May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 06 $1 +$2 +226%
Exact Score: Arsenal FC 1 - 0 Club Atlético de Madrid? May 06 $1 +$6 +596%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 1 FC Bayern München? Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $1 +$2 +152%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 21 $1 +$1 +134%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 21 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $1 +$2 +152%
Exact Score: Club Atlético de Madrid 1 - 1 FC Barcelona? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 1 Paris Saint-Germain FC? Apr 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 3 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: France 1 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.00 · official $21.94 (match) · 296 history records