Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:51:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a3b…bd3b weather 944 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (96 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$655 (-10%) realized −$631 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate34%314W / 612L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day95.9pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$56
7 days−$216
14 days−$216
30 days−$829
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 25% −$259
weather 24% −$339
other 20% −$234
sports 18% +$54
politics 5% −$31
world 5% −$41
tech 1% −$11
economics 1% −$3
culture 1% −$4
finance 0% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (96 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 183 -19.9% -27.5% 36% 19% -20.5%
≤30d 907 -22.3% -29.7% 34% 20% -24.0%
≤90d 926 -22.3% -29.7% 34% 20% -23.8%
all 926 -22.3% -29.7% 34% 20% -23.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover95.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.7% 20% -23.8%
10% ← realistic here -36.4% 18% -31.1%
15% -42.5% 17% -37.8%
20% -48.2% 16% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$631
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses314 / 612
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions18
Markets (closed)926 / 944
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day95.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 926 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Valve remove Overpass from the Map Pool? No 97¢ 97¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Will Charles McCall win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Al Mina be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Extended FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 98¢ 96¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-83%)
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-85%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 19? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-36%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 19? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-38%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 18? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-96%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $89 −$8 -9%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $46 $0 +1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $181 −$7 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 18 $13 +$35 +269%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 18 $50 +$7 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$12 +228%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$21 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +94%
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Ju Jun 17 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 17 $5 +$10 +225%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$20 +378%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 69°F or below on June Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $29 −$24 -84%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $15 +$5 +33%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on June 17 Jun 17 $0 $0 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 17? Jun 17 $0 $0 -60%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $25 −$20 -82%
Will Cyndi Munson win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary el Jun 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $21 +$19 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 $0 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 52m
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 19? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 18? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $81 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $47 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $77 1h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 25°C or higher on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 2h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $48 3h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.41 · official $62.42 (match) · 3500 history records