Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
5A 0x5a3d…d7d5 crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$122 (-3%) realized −$113 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate48%16W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$263
14 days−$151
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 43% +$180
world 36% −$265
crypto 20% −$87
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -12.2% -20.6% 52% 34% -19.6%
≤30d 33 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 33% -13.8%
≤90d 33 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 33% -13.8%
all 33 -9.9% -18.5% 48% 33% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 33% -13.8%
10% -26.3% 24% -22.1%
15% -33.4% 18% -29.6%
20% -40.0% 3% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$27 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized−$113
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses16 / 17
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage27d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 70¢ 67¢ $194 $185 −$9 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $36 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $86 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $46 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $79 −$11 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $254 −$82 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $50 +$21 +42%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $197 +$74 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $203 −$6 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $600 −$249 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 15 $244 −$8 -3%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Jaume Munar Jun 14 $228 −$8 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 08 $348 +$125 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Main Ca Jun 05 $360 −$12 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Jesus Aguilar vs. Rei Tsuruya (Flyweight, Prelims) May 29 $15 −$1 -3%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Tabilo vs Valentin Vacherot May 29 $357 −$12 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 70¢ $194 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 67¢ $195 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 90¢ $111 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 88¢ $111 19h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 66¢ $196 24h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 63¢ $196 26h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 67¢ $208 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 30¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $184.73 · official $185.15 (match) · 103 history records