Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:45:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5A 0x5a3f…c880 crypto 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$1,536 (+14%) realized +$2,544 · open −$1,008
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%37W / 60L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$870now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$284
14 days+$284
30 days+$259
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% −$214
other 23% −$788
sports 15% +$335
politics 13% +$2,100
economics 5% +$77
world 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+20.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +82.1% +64.7% 100% 100% +64.7%
≤30d 2 -9.0% -17.6% 50% 50% +53.6%
≤90d 3 -39.3% -45.1% 33% 33% +48.8%
all 97 +33.0% +20.4% 38% 34% +16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.4% 34% +16.1%
10% +8.9% 32% +5.0%
15% -1.7% 28% -5.2%
20% -11.3% 24% -14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +64% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +91% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$135 vs −$42 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.0 per $1 lost it wins $2.0
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$870
Realized+$2,544
Unrealized−$1,008
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses37 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)97 / 107
History coverage590d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
OKX IPO in 2026? Yes 33¢ 10¢ $1,407 $451 −$955 (-68%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 50¢ $33 $185 +$152 (+461%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? No 9¢ 16¢ $50 $86 +$36 (+72%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 29¢ 35¢ $50 $60 +$10 (+21%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 77¢ 87¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+13%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $150 $1 −$149 (-99%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? No 2¢ 0¢ $25 $1 −$25 (-98%)
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $52 $0 −$52 (-100%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 13 $346 +$284 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET May 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 25 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in January? Mar 19 $366 −$366 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Mar 19 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in January? Mar 19 $1,000 −$370 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Mar 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Mar 03 $1,000 −$59 -6%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 02 $22 +$6 +25%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $258 +$542 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 09 $5 +$95 +1900%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 05 $52 +$88 +170%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 05 $84 −$80 -95%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Feb 01 $364 +$7 +2%
Will the government shutdown last 4 days or more? Feb 01 $126 +$203 +161%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January? Jan 30 $596 +$412 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jan 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jan 23 $4 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jan 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jan 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 23 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jan 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jan 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 5? Jan 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 23 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jan 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jan 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jan 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jan 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jan 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jan 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jan 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jan 23 $17 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by January 31? Jan 23 $40 −$40 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 6, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jan 23 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $52 45m
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 48m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $51 50m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 50¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $154 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $51 1h
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 1h
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 1h
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 1h
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 1h
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 1h
DR Congo to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 77¢ $51 3d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY No 9¢ $52 7d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $8 11d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 11d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $25 25d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 2¢ $26 33d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $27 81d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 82d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 82d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $12 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 90d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 100d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $6 100d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $60 104d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $11 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $869.63 · official $859.33 · 504 history records