Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:56:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a3f…54cd sports 94 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$319 (-2%) realized −$317 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate65%58W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$185per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$34est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$492now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days−$46
14 days−$164
30 days+$582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$438
other 35% +$82
world 1% +$4
crypto 1% $0
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -31.2% -37.7% 60% 60% -13.0%
≤30d 13 -6.1% -15.0% 62% 62% +8.5%
≤90d 46 -13.9% -22.1% 65% 39% -9.7%
all 89 -13.2% -21.5% 65% 47% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 47% -11.4%
10% -29.0% 21% -19.9%
15% -35.8% 10% -27.6%
20% -42.1% 6% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$119 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$492
Realized−$317
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses58 / 31
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions5
Markets (closed)89 / 94
History coverage178d
Avg bet$185
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? No 83¢ 82¢ $208 $206 −$1 (-1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $122 $129 +$6 (+5%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $112 $108 −$4 (-4%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $48 $48 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes $3 $0 −$3 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $316 +$34 +11%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $101 −$98 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $268 +$32 +12%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $105 −$102 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $412 +$88 +21%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $62 −$60 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $334 +$66 +20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $127 −$124 -98%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 07 $302 +$98 +32%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $148 −$145 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $226 +$374 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $262 +$338 +129%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $268 +$82 +31%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 21 $227 −$224 -99%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? May 20 $148 +$2 +2%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $247 +$103 +42%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $135 −$132 -98%
Will Angers SCO vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? May 11 $72 +$178 +250%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $259 +$41 +16%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $64 +$36 +57%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $19 −$19 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $41 −$40 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $47 −$46 -98%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $342 +$58 +17%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $49 +$1 +1%
76ers vs. Celtics May 01 $182 −$180 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 01 $93 +$7 +7%
Will Solana reach $130 in April? May 01 $101 $0 +0%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 29 $46 +$5 +11%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 28 $252 −$251 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $236 −$234 -99%
Will Elche CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 23 $152 +$49 +32%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-04-22? Apr 23 $191 +$10 +5%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 19 $49 −$48 -97%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 16 $298 +$51 +17%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-04-11? Apr 13 $315 +$34 +11%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Apr 11 $87 −$85 -98%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $338 +$11 +3%
Thunder vs. Lakers Apr 08 $376 +$23 +6%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 07 $96 +$4 +4%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 07 $285 +$15 +5%
Miami Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Jannik Sinner Apr 04 $279 +$21 +8%
Warriors vs. Nuggets Mar 29 $96 −$96 -100%
Kings vs. Magic Mar 29 $364 +$36 +10%
Kings vs. Hornets Mar 26 $92 +$8 +9%
Magic vs. Cavaliers Mar 26 $237 +$63 +27%
Utah State Aggies vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 24 $304 +$45 +15%
Illinois State Redbirds vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons Mar 22 $188 −$187 -100%
Pistons vs. Wizards Mar 22 $410 +$40 +10%
76ers vs. Nuggets Mar 19 $270 +$30 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 83¢ $209 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $115 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $101 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $316 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $268 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $105 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $82 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $62 7d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $330 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $334 13d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 31¢ $127 13d
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs BUY Team Secret Whales 75¢ $302 16d
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 29¢ $148 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $48 21d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 37¢ $226 21d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $131 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 43¢ $131 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $74 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes $3 30d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $227 33d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY No 76¢ $268 33d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 70¢ $247 35d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $135 35d
Will Putin visit China by May 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $148 39d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY No 86¢ $259 44d
Will Angers SCO vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $72 44d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 47d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 63¢ $64 47d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 40¢ $41 47d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 13¢ $47 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $491.84 · official $491.84 (match) · 155 history records