Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:05:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a43…340f crypto 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
Total PnL +$72 (+3%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate88%42W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$266
7 days+$205
14 days+$47
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$239
sports 3% +$299
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +14.5% +3.6% 85% 21% +4.0%
≤30d 48 +9.8% -0.7% 88% 19% -7.2%
≤90d 48 +9.8% -0.7% 88% 19% -7.2%
all 48 +9.8% -0.7% 88% 19% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 19% -7.2%
10% -10.2% 17% -16.1%
15% -18.9% 6% -24.2%
20% -26.8% 4% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$63 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses42 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage26d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $180 $0 −$180 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Down 81¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $41 +$181 +442%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $41 +$118 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $40 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET Jun 11 $41 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $41 +$12 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 10AM ET Jun 11 $41 −$40 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $40 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $40 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6PM ET Jun 09 $41 +$15 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8AM ET Jun 09 $41 −$40 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6AM ET Jun 09 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1AM ET Jun 09 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8AM ET Jun 08 $40 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12PM ET Jun 07 $181 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11PM ET Jun 07 $181 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $180 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9PM ET Jun 06 $181 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2PM ET Jun 01 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1PM ET Jun 01 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? Jun 01 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $30 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 6PM ET May 26 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5AM ET May 26 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 22? May 22 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 21? May 21 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20? May 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 99¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 96¢ $40 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 22h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $41 31h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 86¢ $76 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 32h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 45¢ $53 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 32h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 21¢ $20 32h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 14¢ $21 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $40 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 12AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $40 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 6PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $40 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 12PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records