Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:00:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

5A 0x5a45…122b other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$159 (-11%) realized −$159 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate43%9W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$69per market

Trades / day6.6pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit24%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$93

7 days−$131

14 days−$76

30 days−$76

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)+14.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	20	+22.7%	+11.0%	40%	35%	-18.0%
≤30d	21	+26.8%	+14.7%	43%	38%	-14.3%
≤90d	21	+26.8%	+14.7%	43%	38%	-14.3%
all	21	+26.8%	+14.7%	43%	38%	-14.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+14.7%	38%	-14.3%
10%	+3.8%	38%	-22.5%
15%	-6.3%	33%	-30.0%
20%	-15.5%	33%	-36.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

11% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +27% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -8% → late +59% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$60 vs −$52 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.88 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$159

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)43%

Wins / losses9 / 12

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions0

Markets (closed)21 / 21

History coverage7d

Avg bet$69

Trades / day6.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit24%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 21 Trades

no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	Jun 20	$10	+$52	+503%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco?	Jun 20	$20	+$54	+262%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?	Jun 19	$13	−$12	-91%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$10	−$10	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-94%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia?	Jun 18	$31	−$30	-98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama?	Jun 18	$26	+$113	+442%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	Jun 18	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$202	+$45	+22%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	Jun 16	$101	+$9	+9%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$22	−$22	-98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$200	−$200	-100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Jun 14	$5	−$5	-97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$102	+$98	+97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$203	−$107	-53%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$101	+$64	+63%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$49	+$53	+107%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$51	−$28	-55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$100	−$53	-52%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$143	−$142	-99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$51	+$55	+109%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	SELL Yes	99¢	$62	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco?	SELL Yes	100¢	$74	3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 1 Morocco?	BUY Yes	27¢	$20	4h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?	SELL Yes	1¢	$1	25h
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 1 Korea Republic?	BUY Yes	11¢	$13	25h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10PM ET	BUY Down	0¢	$5	2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 1 Colombia?	BUY Yes	22¢	$31	2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama?	SELL Yes	100¢	$139	2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw?	BUY Yes	3¢	$5	2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama?	BUY Yes	18¢	$26	2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	98¢	$118	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	83¢	$101	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	64¢	$130	3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	49¢	$102	3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	38¢	$37	4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	38¢	$1	4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	38¢	$2	4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	38¢	$10	4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	38¢	$2	4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	38¢	$3	4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	38¢	$15	4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	38¢	$1	4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	38¢	$29	4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	SELL Yes	38¢	$10	4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$101	4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	7¢	$2	4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	41¢	$20	4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	92¢	$200	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 47 history records