Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5A
0x5a45…f628
other · 115 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$29,851 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$35,899 · open +$3,102
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$34,304
Realized−$35,899
Unrealized+$3,102
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses52 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)47%
Est. fees paid−$136
Open positions5
Markets (closed)177 / 115
History coverage89d
Avg bet$1,599
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%
Chart Positions 5 History 177 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36,997
7 days−$36,997
14 days−$36,997
30 days−$35,034
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? No 84¢ 91¢ $14,705 $15,949 +$1,244 (+8%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? No 81¢ 92¢ $6,366 $7,305 +$939 (+15%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? No 79¢ 88¢ $3,616 $4,072 +$456 (+13%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? No 88¢ 94¢ $3,344 $3,545 +$202 (+6%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 86¢ 94¢ $3,172 $3,433 +$261 (+8%)
76ers vs. Hornets Hornets 69¢ 0¢ $504 $0 −$504 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Grizzlies: O/U 245.5 Under 49¢ 0¢ $505 $0 −$505 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $838 $0 −$838 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Nets: O/U 214.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $505 $0 −$505 (-100%)
76ers vs. Pelicans 76ers 60¢ 0¢ $504 $0 −$504 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Pistons 55¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $505 $0 −$505 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $692 $0 −$692 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $92 $0 −$92 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $208 $0 −$208 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $437 $0 −$437 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5 Under 51¢ 0¢ $240 $0 −$240 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5 Under 50¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 227.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $1,058 $0 −$1,058 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Suns Lakers 65¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5 Under 53¢ 0¢ $526 $0 −$526 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $502 $0 −$502 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Bulls 37¢ 0¢ $503 $0 −$503 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 220.5 Over 58¢ 0¢ $1,033 $0 −$1,033 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 14 $838 −$65 -8%
76ers vs. Pelicans Jun 14 $504 −$504 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5 Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 14 $92 −$92 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Jun 14 $208 −$1,782 -857%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Jun 14 $437 −$540 -124%
Nuggets vs. Jazz: O/U 243.5 Jun 14 $240 −$240 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Pelicans vs. Jazz: O/U 240.5 Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Bucks vs. Bulls: O/U 227.5 Jun 14 $1,058 −$1,058 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
Kings vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5 Jun 14 $526 −$526 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5 Jun 14 $502 −$502 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Jun 14 $503 −$503 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 220.5 Jun 14 $1,033 −$1,033 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 14 $582 −$582 -100%
Celtics vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5 Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Thunder vs. Bulls: O/U 226.5 Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 14 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Jun 14 $1,202 −$1,202 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Heat: O/U 238.5 Jun 14 $500 −$500 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $1,030 −$1,030 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 14 $859 −$859 -100%
Rockets vs. Heat: O/U 223.5 Jun 14 $606 −$606 -100%
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026 Jun 14 $1,952 −$1,952 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Nets: O/U 222.5 Jun 14 $1,020 −$1,020 -100%
Warriors vs. Pelicans Jun 14 $503 −$503 -100%
Knicks vs. Raptors: O/U 223.5 Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Pacers vs. Wizards Jun 14 $504 −$504 -100%
Warriors vs. Pelicans: O/U 223.5 Jun 14 $496 −$496 -100%
Magic vs. Clippers Jun 14 $502 −$502 -100%
76ers vs. Timberwolves: O/U 238.5 Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 14 $471 −$471 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Suns: O/U 222.5 Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Raptors vs. Bucks: O/U 221.5 Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Jun 14 $1,006 −$1,006 -100%
Kings vs. Grizzlies Jun 14 $506 −$506 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pacers: O/U 234.5 Jun 14 $504 −$504 -100%
Celtics vs. Bucks: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 14 $948 −$948 -100%
Hawks vs. Bucks: O/U 233.5 Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Nets vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $505 −$505 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets: O/U 213.5 Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 20 Jun 14 $648 −$648 -100%
76ers vs. Pacers: O/U 236.5 Jun 14 $494 −$494 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 14 $114 −$114 -100%
Clippers vs. Warriors: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $1,001 −$1,001 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 20 Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5 Jun 14 $998 −$998 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
finance 50% +$6,032
other 37% −$310
sports 11% −$1,021
world 2% +$927
crypto 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $217 28m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $50 55m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $55 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $50 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $61 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $500 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 94¢ $677 4h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 94¢ $5 6h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 94¢ $1,880 12h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 94¢ $1,830 12h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 88¢ $2,381 25h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $1,826 27h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 94¢ $1,824 28h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $1,894 28h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 94¢ $56 29h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $264 31h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $20 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $46 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $135 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $61 33h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $1,916 34h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? SELL No 93¢ $1,860 34h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 85¢ $59 34h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $42 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $160 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $331 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $160 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $160 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $9 35h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $1,388 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-36.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 -95.5% -95.9% 3% 1% -68.7%
≤30d 78 -82.7% -84.4% 13% 5% -47.6%
≤90d 177 -30.1% -36.8% 29% 23% -27.0%
all 177 -30.1% -36.8% 29% 23% -27.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -36.8% 23% -27.0%
10% -42.8% 19% -34.0%
15% ← realistic here -48.3% 16% -40.4%
20% -53.4% 13% -46.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34,304.45 · official $34,304.45 (match) · 3500 history records