Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a46…6ded crypto 53 markets active 2h ago coverage 623d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$173 (+2%) realized +$165 · open +$8
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%46W / 3L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$540now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% +$19
crypto 24% +$13
world 20% −$51
politics 10% +$140
tech 9% +$23
sports 7% +$8
economics 4% +$20
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +1.7% -8.0% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 11 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.9%
all 49 -3.5% -12.7% 94% 4% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 4% -7.7%
10% -21.0% 2% -16.5%
15% -28.7% 2% -24.6%
20% -35.7% 2% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$27 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.02 per $1 lost it wins $3.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

623d coverage
Net worth$540
Realized+$165
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses46 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)49 / 53
History coverage623d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $178 $181 +$3 (+2%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $111 $112 +$1 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $103 $107 +$4 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? Jun 14 $168 +$2 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 14 $360 +$8 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana G May 10 $150 +$5 +3%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 10 $200 +$1 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 10 $133 +$6 +5%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 10 $188 +$3 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? May 10 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? Apr 24 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 06 $126 +$5 +4%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 06 $192 +$2 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? Apr 06 $192 +$3 +1%
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026? Mar 19 $180 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? Mar 05 $230 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Mar 05 $267 +$2 +1%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 13 $140 +$2 +1%
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 Feb 13 $157 +$1 +1%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 13 $333 +$2 +0%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9? Jan 25 $160 +$1 +0%
Pepe ETF in 2025? Jan 08 $138 +$1 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 08 $155 +$3 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 16 $261 +$14 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November Nov 17 $272 +$1 +0%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Nov 13 $272 +$1 +0%
Will Catherine Connolly win the Irish Presidential Election? Oct 31 $262 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31? Oct 23 $160 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $210 and $220 on October 20? Oct 23 $110 $0 +0%
Solana above $190 on September 5? Oct 20 $70 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 20 $180 +$20 +11%
Will "The Naked Gun" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $20m and $2 Sep 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 July 28–August 3? Sep 05 $141 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.0 in July? Aug 02 $242 +$2 +1%
Base airdrop in Q2 2025? Jul 07 $70 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down in Q2? Jul 07 $168 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 100 times June 13–20? Jun 25 $160 +$3 +2%
Will the Movement Together win the most seats in the next Albanian ele Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Jun 14 $188 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? May 07 $66 −$66 -100%
Will Canada block Pornhub in the U.S. before May? May 07 $13 $0 +0%
Solana all time high in April? May 07 $69 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 07 $81 $0 +0%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? May 07 $90 $0 +0%
Will China unban Bitcoin by March 31? Apr 11 $240 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 14 $210 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24? Feb 28 $216 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 22 $258 +$10 +4%
Will Russia recapture Sudzha before December? Dec 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will a Democrat win Ohio US Senate Election? Nov 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 11 $190 +$133 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $140 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $150 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 95¢ $103 14d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 in June? BUY No 98¢ $178 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $260 14d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $360 48d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL Hanwha Life Esports 95¢ $201 48d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 99¢ $168 48d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Hanwha Life Esports 94¢ $200 48d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs The Huns Esports (BO3) - PGL Astana G BUY Aurora Gaming 97¢ $150 48d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $200 64d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $133 82d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase March 31-April 6? BUY Yes 99¢ $200 82d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $188 82d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 99¢ $192 101d
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by March 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $192 115d
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $180 115d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? BUY No 96¢ $126 115d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $230 135d
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 BUY No 99¢ $267 135d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY No 99¢ $140 150d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? SELL No 100¢ $133 150d
Will the total domestic gross for Avatar: Fire and Ash be less than 40 BUY Yes 99¢ $157 153d
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 9? BUY No 100¢ $160 171d
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? BUY No 99¢ $333 171d
Pepe ETF in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $138 193d
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 98¢ $155 193d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 95¢ $261 223d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $106,000 and $108,000 on November BUY No 100¢ $272 226d
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? BUY No 100¢ $272 239d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $540.01 · official $540.01 (match) · 106 history records