Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5A 0x5a4b…9f51 sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$804 (-5%) realized −$206 · open −$598
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate54%85W / 73L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$179est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 151d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% −$3,430
other 3% −$178
crypto 2% −$18
tech 1% +$18
world 0% −$12
politics 0% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +10.5% +0.0% 70% 20% -10.6%
≤30d 34 -17.2% -25.1% 62% 18% -33.2%
≤90d 41 -12.8% -21.1% 66% 22% -32.6%
all 158 -14.8% -22.9% 54% 35% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 35% -31.3%
10% -30.3% 32% -37.9%
15% -37.0% 28% -43.9%
20% -43.2% 25% -49.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$51 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$638
Realized−$206
Unrealized−$598
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses85 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$179
Open positions6
Markets (closed)158 / 164
History coverage151d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ 100¢ $242 $515 +$273 (+113%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 84¢ 99¢ $84 $99 +$15 (+18%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 85¢ 92¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Variational FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-6%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner T1 Academy 53¢ $346 $0 −$346 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner T1 Academy 52¢ $267 $0 −$267 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 18 $8 +$2 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $614 +$16 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $507 −$7 -1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $11 +$9 +79%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $813 −$79 -10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $596 −$6 -1%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $491 +$9 +2%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $198 +$2 +1%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $693 +$7 +1%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $686 −$413 -60%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $693 −$266 -38%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $500 $0 +0%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $72 +$28 +39%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $704 −$492 -70%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $80 +$20 +25%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $597 −$132 -22%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $164 −$65 -40%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $553 −$519 -94%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $680 +$20 +3%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $604 −$311 -52%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 11 $199 +$1 +0%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $220 $0 -0%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $405 +$11 +3%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 09 $597 +$3 +0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $600 −$186 -31%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $598 +$2 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $662 −$366 -55%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 05 $9 +$1 +10%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 05 $9 +$1 +8%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 05 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $8 +$2 +20%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 05 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 24 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 11 $23 +$7 +31%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April May 01 $19 +$1 +3%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 03 $20 −$20 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 03 $20 $0 +1%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Apr 03 $19 +$1 +3%
Mavericks vs. Bucks Apr 03 $26 +$24 +94%
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 03 $39 +$11 +28%
Opensea FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 20 $97 −$50 -52%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Mar 20 $12 +$18 +150%
Magic vs. Clippers Feb 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Jazz vs. Grizzlies Feb 21 $16 +$14 +85%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-02-20? Feb 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-20? Feb 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Nuggets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Feb 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Ferencvárosi TC win on 2026-02-19? Feb 20 $20 +$10 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $59 45m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 52¢ $132 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $20 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 Academy 52¢ $76 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $13 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $13 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $6 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $95 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $19 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $9 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $24 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $2 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $21 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 47¢ $19 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $699 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $12 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 67¢ $22 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 37¢ $1 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 37¢ $5 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 37¢ $4 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 Academy 37¢ $9 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $338 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $65 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 53¢ $306 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 Academy 50¢ $2 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 22¢ $1 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 22¢ $21 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 40¢ $120 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 60¢ $243 3d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 41¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $638.43 · official $638.43 (match) · 491 history records