Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a4e…0bda other 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 462d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,631 (+10%) realized +$6,433 · open +$198
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%46W / 37L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$751per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$2,338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$222
14 days−$222
30 days−$114
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$1,449
politics 31% +$7,158
finance 21% +$1,385
crypto 3% −$282
sports 1% −$276
economics 0% −$73
world 0% +$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -18.7% -26.4% 71% 29% -34.3%
≤30d 14 -8.2% -17.0% 71% 43% -11.5%
≤90d 32 -18.4% -26.2% 59% 38% -6.0%
all 83 -5.8% -14.8% 55% 43% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 43% -0.8%
10% -22.9% 28% -10.3%
15% -30.4% 16% -19.0%
20% -37.2% 10% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$803) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$258 vs −$149 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

462d coverage
Net worth$2,338
Realized+$6,433
Unrealized+$198
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses46 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)83 / 91
History coverage462d
Avg bet$751
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? No 80¢ 98¢ $646 $793 +$146 (+23%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 80¢ $496 $487 −$9 (-2%)
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 86¢ $250 $374 +$124 (+50%)
Solana all time high by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $212 $216 +$4 (+2%)
Will fomo.family be acquired in 2026? No 63¢ 75¢ $150 $178 +$28 (+18%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 60¢ 48¢ $195 $155 −$40 (-21%)
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $82 $94 +$12 (+14%)
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 36¢ $110 $43 −$66 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $252 −$250 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $242 +$6 +2%
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? Jun 11 $160 +$12 +8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 11 $92 +$4 +5%
Will Phantom launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 11 $28 +$10 +36%
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? May 31 $98 +$11 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $546 +$139 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $1,047 +$112 +11%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 26 $112 −$37 -33%
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 26 $1,411 −$291 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 24 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Hyperliquid reach $50 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $1,043 +$173 +17%
Spread: Knicks (-7.5) May 04 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 04 $10 −$10 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? May 04 $678 +$80 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 04 $4,096 +$848 +21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 29 $1,392 +$8 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 29 $5,206 +$207 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 23 $774 −$162 -21%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 06 $94 +$70 +75%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Trump say "April Fool" or "April Fool's" during Address to the Na Apr 02 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Trump say "Operation Epic Fury" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $208 +$23 +11%
Will Trump say "Mission Accomplished" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $5 −$2 -47%
Will Trump say "Hormuz" during Address to the Nation? Apr 02 $105 −$9 -9%
Will Trump say "Objective" or "Goal" 3+ times during Address to the Na Apr 02 $190 +$10 +5%
US government shutdown by October 1? Apr 01 $152 −$152 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Apr 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 27 $26 +$11 +43%
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 27 $194 +$50 +26%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Mar 16 $1,209 −$435 -36%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Monday press conference? Mar 10 $4 $0 +5%
Will Trump say "Barrel" during Monday press conference? Mar 10 $14 +$6 +43%
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during Monday press conference? Mar 09 $148 −$9 -6%
Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Feb 09 $191 +$48 +25%
Over $40M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Over $50M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $434 +$266 +61%
Over $60M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $405 +$439 +108%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 10 $621 +$70 +11%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 10 $122 +$32 +26%
MegaETH $250M pre-deposit bridge filled in 15 minutes? Nov 25 $198 −$76 -39%
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 23 $2,574 −$1,280 -50%
Over $275M committed to the Monad public sale? Nov 22 $100 −$15 -15%
Over $20M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $1,754 +$359 +20%
Over $40M committed to the Solomon public sale? Nov 18 $2,125 −$371 -17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 16 $1 −$1 -49%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 07 $1,867 +$257 +14%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by December 31? Nov 02 $200 +$41 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 45¢ $72 1h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $149 1h
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY Yes 87¢ $83 14h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $202 14h
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $151 14h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 67¢ $48 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 78¢ $79 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 3d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $248 5d
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? SELL Yes 83¢ $149 5d
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? SELL Yes 84¢ $22 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? SELL No 97¢ $97 5d
Will Phantom launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $38 5d
Will Phantom launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 5d
Will Zcash reach $700 by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $142 12d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? BUY No 92¢ $92 18d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY No 80¢ $651 18d
Will Hyperliquid reach $70 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $98 18d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY Yes 81¢ $24 22d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 67¢ $97 22d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 58¢ $187 22d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 58¢ $51 22d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 58¢ $36 22d
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL No 12¢ $18 22d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 58¢ $120 22d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 61¢ $228 22d
Solstice FDV above $200M one day after launch? SELL No 65¢ $401 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,338.32 · official $2,338.32 (match) · 416 history records