Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:28:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a50…49f3 sports 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$181 (-10%) realized −$185 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%68W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$23
14 days−$17
30 days−$75
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$137
other 23% −$37
world 1% −$10
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +4.0% -5.9% 54% 54% -15.4%
≤30d 52 +1.5% -8.2% 50% 50% -19.3%
≤90d 117 -1.4% -10.8% 50% 50% -17.8%
all 134 -0.5% -10.0% 51% 51% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 51% -19.2%
10% -18.6% 51% -27.0%
15% -26.5% 46% -34.0%
20% -33.7% 34% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$13 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$185
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses68 / 66
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage99d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 57¢ 78¢ $10 $13 +$4 (+38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 64 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 +$5 +40%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$7 +118%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $11 +$5 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 −$22 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$13 +262%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $9 +$5 +50%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $10 +$15 +152%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $27 −$26 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $18 +$6 +34%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 +$19 +188%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $26 −$16 -60%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$6 +59%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $10 +$5 +54%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $7 +$9 +135%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 11 $10 −$4 -36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $22 −$21 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 +$7 +65%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $8 +$7 +93%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $6 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $11 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $12 +$4 +36%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $18 +$5 +27%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs WW Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Playoffs May 29 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs K27 (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group C May 25 $20 +$10 +51%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs K27 - Map 2 Winner May 25 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $23 −$23 -99%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $5 +$33 +649%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $9 −$8 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $30 +$14 +46%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Playoffs May 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Pla May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs HEROIC Academy (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europ May 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION (BO3) - CS Asia Championships May 22 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs paiN (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $20 +$15 +75%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $10 +$7 +73%
Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs BC.Game Esports (+1.5) May 21 $20 +$11 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 57¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 53¢ $10 3d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 26¢ $5 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $17 3d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 71¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $12 3d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $6 4d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 68¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $22 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 68¢ $11 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 100¢ $18 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 40¢ $14 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 27¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 33¢ $6 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $26 5d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 39¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $9 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $27 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $10 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $9 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 47¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Team Falcons 45¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $16 5d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FURIA 100¢ $16 6d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.50 · official $13.50 (match) · 220 history records