Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
5A 0x5a52…c0e8 crypto 576 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 121d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,294 (-20%) realized −$7,265 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate41%236W / 337L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$191est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days−$75
14 days−$1,437
30 days−$3,496
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$6,383
sports 15% +$350
other 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 +41.2% +27.8% 46% 42% -12.8%
≤30d 342 -19.7% -27.3% 36% 31% -29.5%
≤90d 550 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 35% -30.8%
all 573 -11.1% -19.6% 41% 37% -24.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.6% 37% -24.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.3% 33% -31.5%
15% -34.3% 30% -38.1%
20% -40.7% 26% -44.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$51 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,265
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses236 / 337
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$191
Open positions3
Markets (closed)573 / 576
History coverage121d ⚠
Avg bet$65
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 573 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 8¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-99%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 7¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $57 −$55 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $87 +$33 +38%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$8 +34%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $14 +$52 +361%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $132 −$128 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 15 $18 +$3 +17%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $48 −$8 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $93 +$34 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$26 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $19 +$14 +74%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $24 +$13 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $120 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $126 −$1 -1%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $43 +$5 +11%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $27 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$1 -4%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $14 −$14 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $10 +$2 +16%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $55 −$54 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$2 -4%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $7 $0 -5%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $69 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +86%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $34 +$36 +107%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $48 −$17 -36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $50 +$161 +322%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $73 −$34 -47%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $46 +$33 +72%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $27 −$27 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 −$8 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $26 +$4 +15%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $24 +$13 +54%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 13 $13 −$6 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 5¢ $5 10m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 22¢ $13 27m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 17¢ $17 32m
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 30¢ $86 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 30¢ $4 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 16¢ $16 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 16¢ $0 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 16¢ $16 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 16¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 51¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $57 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 7¢ $7 1h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 38¢ $39 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 30¢ $1 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 26¢ $16 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 25¢ $0 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 25¢ $13 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 10¢ $10 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $15 15h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $73 15h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 16¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 32¢ $31 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $16 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 15h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 8¢ $4 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.17 (match) · 3500 history records