Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:41:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
5A 0x5a55…125c crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$913per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$14
14 days+$2
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$14
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-58.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -24.9% -32.0% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 20 -39.9% -45.6% 60% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 26 -53.8% -58.2% 46% 0% -9.6%
all 26 -53.8% -58.2% 46% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -62.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -65.8% 0% -26.1%
20% -69.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,039) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -61% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage45d
Avg bet$913
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum reach $1,650 on June 27? Jun 28 $2,039 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? Jun 27 $2,035 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26? Jun 27 $2,031 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 26? Jun 26 $2,028 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25? Jun 26 $2,024 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,019 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6? Jun 07 $2,076 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? Jun 06 $2,074 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $2,069 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? Jun 05 $2,066 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4? Jun 05 $2,061 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? Jun 04 $2,058 +$4 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3? Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? May 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23? May 23 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 17? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? May 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $1,650 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $2,039 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $2,035 18h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $2,031 25h
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,028 45h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $2,024 2d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $2,019 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 23? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $63,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 10d
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 11d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $5 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 16d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $2,076 21d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $2,074 21d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $2,069 22d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $2,066 22d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $2,061 23d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,058 23d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 28d
Will Bitcoin reach $77,000 on May 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 34d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23? BUY No 0¢ $4 35d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 38d
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 17? BUY No 0¢ $4 41d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 14? BUY No 0¢ $4 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.22 · official $5.22 (match) · 39 history records