Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:51:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a5c…0a40 crypto 163 markets active 4d ago coverage 26d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$65 (+2%) realized +$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%80W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$96
14 days+$31
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$140
other 15% −$87
sports 5% −$96
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +32.3% +19.7% 60% 60% -1.9%
≤30d 163 +2.1% -7.6% 49% 48% -10.5%
≤90d 163 +2.1% -7.6% 49% 48% -10.5%
all 163 +2.1% -7.6% 49% 48% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 48% -10.5%
10% -16.5% 42% -19.0%
15% -24.5% 39% -26.9%
20% -31.9% 32% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$15 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses80 / 83
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)163 / 163
History coverage26d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 163 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $45 +$33 +73%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 +$43 +842%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 +$40 +388%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $25 −$24 -98%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $109 −$77 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$33 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $40 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 12 $70 +$41 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 12 $83 −$51 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$28 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$34 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 12 $36 +$37 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 12 $81 +$17 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $41 −$19 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$24 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$36 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 12 $41 +$17 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $30 +$15 +51%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$34 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -83%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $72 +$30 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 11 $26 −$22 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 11 $18 +$13 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 11 $29 −$19 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $29 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$7 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$17 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$8 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$7 +45%
Will Niger win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Moldova vs. Bulgaria end in a draw? Jun 05 $56 −$43 -77%
Will Bulgaria win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $81 −$36 -44%
Bulgaria leading at halftime? Jun 05 $3 +$7 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 05 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $59 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 05 $16 +$21 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 05 $15 +$9 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $78 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 3d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 3d
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $12 4d
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 19¢ $25 5d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $25 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $111 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $15 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $24 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $42 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 17¢ $13 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $41 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 369 history records