Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:41:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
5A 0x5a60…2a67 other 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 285d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,612 (+12%) realized +$1,091 · open +$3,521
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate61%67W / 42L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$270per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$5,936now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$1,699
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$5,298
world 28% −$963
politics 0% +$7
crypto 0% +$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +55.0% +40.3% 75% 75% -11.6%
≤30d 33 +18.8% +7.5% 45% 45% -36.8%
≤90d 45 +29.9% +17.5% 49% 47% -5.6%
all 109 +18.4% +7.1% 61% 39% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.1% 39% -7.1%
10% -3.2% 33% -16.0%
15% -12.5% 25% -24.1%
20% -21.1% 24% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$153 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

285d coverage
Net worth$5,936
Realized+$1,091
Unrealized+$3,521
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses67 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions31
Markets (closed)109 / 140
History coverage285d
Avg bet$270
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? No 29¢ 99¢ $1,049 $3,654 +$2,605 (+248%)
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 18¢ 74¢ $176 $727 +$551 (+314%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 20¢ 24¢ $265 $309 +$44 (+17%)
Will Hibachi launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 9¢ 40¢ $67 $292 +$225 (+337%)
Will Neutrl launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 40¢ 30¢ $192 $145 −$47 (-24%)
Will Tread launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 46¢ 78¢ $74 $127 +$52 (+70%)
Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 98¢ $82 $122 +$40 (+48%)
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 82¢ $105 $121 +$16 (+15%)
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 23¢ 34¢ $39 $56 +$17 (+44%)
Will Valantis launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 72¢ 76¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 31¢ 31¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Relay FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 34¢ 46¢ $27 $36 +$10 (+37%)
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 41¢ 36¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-12%)
Will Tread launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 30¢ 48¢ $16 $27 +$10 (+62%)
Will Extended launch a token by December 31 2026? No 15¢ 25¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+64%)
Will Perena launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 52¢ 64¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+25%)
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 24¢ 38¢ $11 $19 +$7 (+63%)
Will Yeet launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 27¢ 39¢ $13 $18 +$5 (+42%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 66¢ 75¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+14%)
Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027? No 17¢ 32¢ $9 $17 +$8 (+91%)
Will Tori launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 15¢ 37¢ $6 $15 +$9 (+147%)
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 47¢ 46¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 72¢ 78¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+9%)
Will Papertrade launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 33¢ 10¢ $29 $9 −$20 (-70%)
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 55¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 24 $234 −$233 -99%
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 24 $26 +$71 +274%
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 23 $256 +$53 +21%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 19 $357 +$89 +25%
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $87 −$84 -97%
Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 06 $65 −$58 -90%
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 06 $67 −$55 -81%
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -81%
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 04 $83 +$149 +180%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $352 −$329 -93%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 04 $423 −$420 -99%
Will Valantis launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 31 $12 +$19 +161%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 29 $434 −$422 -97%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 29 $614 −$461 -75%
Will Hotstuff launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 29 $88 +$264 +300%
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2026? May 29 $207 −$184 -89%
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027? May 29 $49 −$40 -82%
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 29 $40 −$35 -87%
Will MagicBlock launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 29 $28 +$7 +24%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $592 +$155 +26%
Will Ritual launch a token by June 30, 2027? May 28 $11 +$4 +34%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? May 27 $69 +$51 +74%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by May 31? May 27 $259 −$253 -98%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 26 $69 −$69 -100%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? May 26 $473 −$268 -57%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $266 +$226 +85%
Will Hylo launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 26 $46 +$174 +378%
Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 26 $19 +$47 +248%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 26 $7 +$6 +86%
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2027? May 26 $7 +$18 +244%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 26 $305 −$20 -6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? May 25 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? May 25 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Daylight launch a token by September 30, 2026? May 23 $379 +$405 +107%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $270 −$4 -1%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? May 19 $234 −$77 -33%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 11 $161 −$42 -26%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 11 $135 −$61 -45%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? May 08 $283 +$20 +7%
Will USD reach 1.8M Iranian rials by April 30? May 02 $92 +$27 +29%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch? May 01 $674 +$1,720 +255%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 30 $404 −$404 -100%
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by March 7? Apr 01 $11 +$14 +122%
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7? Apr 01 $39 +$40 +103%
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31? Apr 01 $140 +$426 +305%
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026? Feb 25 $87 −$17 -20%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Feb 22 $20 +$2 +9%
Will Iran close its airspace by February 28, 2026? Feb 21 $93 −$93 -100%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026? Feb 21 $43 +$95 +222%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $2 1h
Will Noble launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $107 1h
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2027? BUY No 31¢ $41 1h
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $326 1h
Will Noble launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 58¢ $69 1h
Will Symbiotic launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $281 23h
Will Neutrl launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $5 23h
Will Neutrl launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $47 23h
Will Symbiotic launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 65¢ $309 23h
Will Neutrl launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 39¢ $17 23h
Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 23h
Will Neutrl launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 40¢ $98 23h
Will Daylight launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $99 23h
Will Neutrl launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 38¢ $33 23h
Will Multipli.fi launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $42 23h
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $83 23h
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch? BUY No 47¢ $14 24h
Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $17 13d
Will Cap launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $151 13d
Will Arcium launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $87 17d
Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL No 2¢ $6 17d
Will Arcium launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 3¢ $13 17d
Will Arcium launch a token by September 30, 2027? SELL No 3¢ $1 17d
Will Perena launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $17 17d
Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 6¢ $1 20d
Will Apyx launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $0 20d
Will Perena launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY No 55¢ $6 20d
Will Decibel launch a token by December 31, 2027? SELL No 49¢ $231 20d
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 2¢ $24 20d
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $3 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,935.50 · official $5,935.50 (match) · 740 history records