Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a61…1787 sports 517 markets active 2h ago coverage 616d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12,619 (-10%) realized −$12,646 · open +$27
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate39%199W / 317L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$274
14 days+$264
30 days+$218
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$4,077
other 18% −$2,847
politics 12% −$5,996
crypto 0% −$71
culture 0% −$187
economics 0% −$134
world 0% −$28
tech 0% −$32
finance 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +85.2% +67.6% 100% 100% +60.9%
≤30d 6 +21.0% +9.5% 67% 67% +22.6%
≤90d 34 +14.5% +3.6% 59% 59% +20.6%
all 516 -13.3% -21.5% 39% 38% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 38% -19.9%
10% -29.1% 36% -27.5%
15% -35.9% 34% -34.5%
20% -42.2% 30% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$189 vs −$162 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

616d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$12,646
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses199 / 317
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)516 / 517
History coverage616d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 516 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $42 $69 +$27 (+64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $183 +$101 +55%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $71 +$62 +86%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $98 +$111 +114%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $96 −$95 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $122 +$86 +70%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 02 $47 −$46 -97%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 14 $43 −$15 -34%
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15?? May 14 $56 +$105 +188%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 11 $145 +$147 +102%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 11 $117 +$102 +87%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $43 −$42 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 18 $146 +$198 +135%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5) Apr 07 $975 +$804 +82%
Houston Astros vs. Athletics Apr 05 $487 −$480 -99%
Spread: Duke Blue Devils (-5.5) Mar 29 $266 +$233 +88%
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats Mar 29 $500 +$475 +95%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-5.5) Mar 29 $712 +$705 +99%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-6.5) Mar 29 $663 +$450 +68%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 29 $490 −$251 -51%
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jays Mar 28 $300 +$61 +20%
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskies Mar 28 $24 −$24 -100%
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 28 $296 −$295 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougars Mar 27 $27 +$34 +126%
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-3.5) Mar 27 $253 −$252 -100%
Spread: Connecticut Huskies (-1.5) Mar 27 $197 −$196 -100%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-8.5) Mar 27 $275 +$251 +91%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Arizona Wildcats (-11.5) Mar 23 $179 +$170 +95%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Kansas Jayhawks Mar 22 $78 −$78 -100%
Spread: Iowa State Cyclones (-4.5) Mar 22 $304 +$173 +57%
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones Mar 22 $250 +$188 +75%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-8.5) Mar 22 $202 −$201 -100%
Aston Villa FC leading at halftime? Mar 22 $80 +$102 +128%
Spread: Michigan State Spartans (-4.5) Mar 21 $250 +$219 +88%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 21 $65 −$65 -100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers Mar 21 $250 −$249 -100%
Will Kansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Tennessee Volunteers (-12.5) Mar 20 $130 −$130 -100%
Miami (OH) RedHawks vs. Tennessee Volunteers Mar 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: Tennessee Volunteers (-11.5) Mar 20 $130 −$15 -12%
Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-2.5) Mar 20 $532 +$467 +88%
Spread: Kentucky Wildcats (-3.5) Mar 20 $250 −$15 -6%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 20 $274 −$274 -100%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-25.5) Mar 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Saint Mary's Gaels (-2.5) Mar 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: BYU Cougars (-2.5) Mar 19 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: North Carolina Tar Heels (-2.5) Mar 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Mar 15 $112 −$111 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina Mar 15 $84 −$84 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $17 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $284 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $49 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $49 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $134 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $111 4d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers SELL Milwaukee Brewers 91¢ $133 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 48¢ $71 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $98 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 51¢ $96 9d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 58¢ $122 11d
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang BUY Yes 19¢ $47 17d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $6 36d
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15?? SELL Yes 99¢ $147 36d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $14 36d
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15?? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 36d
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15?? BUY Yes 28¢ $56 36d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? SELL Yes $26 36d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY Yes $23 37d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 28¢ $137 38d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $220 38d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $117 39d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL Yes 32¢ $156 41d
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY Yes 14¢ $145 44d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $43 61d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 86¢ $215 62d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? SELL Yes 53¢ $129 62d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY Yes 29¢ $146 62d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY Yes $48 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.00 · official $69.00 (match) · 1438 history records