Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:20:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a61…48d0 other 92 markets active 3h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (181 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$131 (-5%) realized −$97 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day181.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$529now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$99
politics 33% −$27
world 4% −$8
crypto 3% −$2
culture 2% −$4
sports 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (181 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 -6.5% -15.4% 5% 2% -13.5%
≤30d 60 -6.5% -15.4% 5% 2% -13.5%
≤90d 60 -6.5% -15.4% 5% 2% -13.5%
all 60 -6.5% -15.4% 5% 2% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover181.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.4% 2% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 2% -21.8%
15% -30.9% 0% -29.4%
20% -37.7% 0% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 97% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$529
Realized−$97
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 57
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions32
Markets (closed)60 / 92
History coverage4d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day181.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 +$0 (+0%)
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-7%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-7%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $29 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-2%)
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-6%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $24 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $22 −$2 (-10%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $22 −$3 (-12%)
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $23 $22 −$2 (-7%)
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-6%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 40¢ 40¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $14 $13 −$1 (-5%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison? No 99¢ 97¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -1%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $28 $0 -0%
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Jun 19 $18 −$1 -7%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $69 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Jun 19 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $49 −$1 -2%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $30 −$11 -37%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $25 −$9 -37%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $30 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $31 $0 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $33 $0 -0%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in priso Jun 19 $36 −$23 -64%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $25 −$4 -14%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $42 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $42 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $42 $0 -1%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Jun 19 $26 −$2 -7%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 19 $34 −$3 -9%
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison? Jun 19 $20 −$9 -45%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Jun 19 $29 −$13 -46%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $52 $0 -0%
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Jun 19 $20 −$2 -12%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 19 $50 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? Jun 19 $12 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison BUY No 99¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $5 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $5 2h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $6 2h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $6 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $5 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2 2h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3 2h
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL No 49¢ $3 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $3 2h
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 2h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $3 2h
Trump out as President before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $3 2h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $3 2h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2 2h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 87¢ $2 3h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 3h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2 3h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 87¢ $2 3h
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1 3h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3 3h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $3 3h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $3 3h
Trump out as President before GTA VI? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 3h
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 3h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 3h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 3h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $528.94 · official $528.99 (match) · 803 history records