Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:02:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
5A 0x5a64…3c0a sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,481 (-9%) realized −$4,048 · open −$433
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%37W / 38L
Whale WR32%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$599per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$657est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$694now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$345
7 days−$15,225
14 days−$12,104
30 days−$10,117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$3,122
other 21% −$2,483
crypto 0% −$105
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -68.9% -71.9% 9% 9% -62.4%
≤30d 46 -32.6% -39.0% 28% 28% -34.4%
≤90d 75 +4.2% -5.7% 49% 49% -20.1%
all 75 +4.2% -5.7% 49% 49% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 49% -20.1%
10% -14.7% 49% -27.7%
15% -23.0% 44% -34.7%
20% -30.5% 37% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 32% (≥$533) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +67% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$351 vs −$481 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$694
Realized−$4,048
Unrealized−$433
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses37 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)32%
Est. fees paid−$657
Open positions3
Markets (closed)75 / 79
History coverage49d
Avg bet$599
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 32¢ 30¢ $528 $486 −$41 (-8%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $207 −$93 (-31%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 26¢ $300 $1 −$299 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $7,038 −$731 -10%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $487 +$386 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1,469 −$1,454 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $4,588 −$4,528 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $97 −$94 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $988 −$971 -98%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1,357 −$1,320 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $307 −$14 -4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $139 +$226 +162%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) Jun 13 $140 −$140 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 213.5 Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $306 −$306 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) Jun 13 $406 −$406 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 13 $527 −$527 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 13 $203 −$203 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) Jun 13 $304 −$304 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) Jun 13 $304 −$304 -100%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 203.5 Jun 13 $103 −$103 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $533 −$533 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Jun 13 $456 −$456 -100%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Jun 13 $205 −$205 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 13 $489 −$489 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 13 $397 −$397 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 13 $548 −$548 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $630 −$630 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $375 −$375 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 13 $996 −$149 -15%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 13 $671 −$671 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 13 $1,069 −$1,069 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $681 +$1,452 +213%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $1,287 −$106 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1,419 −$129 -9%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $2,129 +$1,760 +83%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 09 $1,415 +$741 +52%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $522 −$32 -6%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $305 +$464 +152%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $404 +$424 +105%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $253 +$151 +60%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $1,152 +$446 +39%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $253 +$156 +62%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5 Jun 04 $486 +$477 +98%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 May 31 $355 +$305 +86%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $730 +$453 +62%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $841 +$229 +27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $254 −$120 -47%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 May 11 $305 −$305 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 215.5 May 11 $103 −$103 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 71¢ $1,489 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 32¢ $1,224 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $1,131 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 26¢ $307 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $873 3h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY G2 55¢ $487 8h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $485 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $1,469 4d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2,050 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $4,588 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $4,598 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner BUY Curaçao 19¢ $97 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $94 5d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $988 5d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $329 6d
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes $1,028 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL MOUZ 24¢ $293 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 24¢ $307 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner SELL Monte 73¢ $365 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 27¢ $139 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $1,445 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 51¢ $375 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL Natus Vincere 28¢ $312 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Natus Vincere 20¢ $681 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $309 6d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $375 7d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-12? AND Wi BUY 15¢ $103 7d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1,178 8d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 55¢ $1,182 8d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,287 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $694.09 · official $694.09 (match) · 194 history records