trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | 83¢ | 83¢ | $27 | $27 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | Jun 10 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Jun 23 | $1 | $0 | +14% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? | Jun 07 | $2 | $0 | +4% |
| Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? | May 19 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? | May 17 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? | Mar 28 | $24 | $0 | +0% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Mar 27 | $28 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? | Mar 25 | $65 | $0 | -1% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 9 | +98.0% | +79.1% | 78% | 11% | -9.4% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +79.1% | 11% | -9.4% |
| 10% | +62.0% | 11% | -18.1% |
| 15% | +46.3% | 11% | -26.0% |
| 20% | +32.0% | 11% | -33.3% |