Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:46:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a65…e883 sports 258 markets active 0h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,973 (+0%) realized +$1,973 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate72%184W / 73L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,751per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$129est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$100now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$934
7 days+$2,323
14 days+$2,323
30 days+$2,323
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$721
other 9% +$3,184
politics 1% −$791
crypto 0% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +4.2% -5.7% 71% 47% -3.7%
≤30d 38 +4.2% -5.7% 71% 47% -3.7%
≤90d 38 +4.2% -5.7% 71% 47% -3.7%
all 257 -3.8% -13.0% 72% 31% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 31% -9.2%
10% -21.3% 19% -17.9%
15% -28.9% 7% -25.8%
20% -35.9% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$3,104) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$185 vs −$443 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$100
Realized+$1,973
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses184 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$129
Open positions1
Markets (closed)257 / 258
History coverage447d
Avg bet$1,751
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,006 +$228 +23%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $502 +$59 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2,408 +$289 +12%
Brazil leading at halftime? Jun 24 $2,305 +$168 +7%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2,125 +$204 +10%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $203 +$232 +114%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,800 +$111 +6%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 23 $1,343 +$456 +34%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $503 +$138 +27%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $1,138 +$69 +6%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $503 +$107 +21%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $971 +$59 +6%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $1,908 −$4 -0%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Draw at halftime? Jun 22 $678 −$678 -100%
Cabo Verde leading at halftime? Jun 22 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $835 +$140 +17%
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $565 +$269 +48%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $376 +$188 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $669 −$293 -44%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $101 +$24 +24%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $501 +$43 +9%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 21 $770 +$9 +1%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $592 +$178 +30%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Draw at halftime? Jun 21 $201 +$58 +29%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $756 −$132 -18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$33 -33%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,074 +$209 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Kevin Borjas vs. Andre Lima (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $2,184 −$68 -3%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $4,851 −$388 -8%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $151 +$54 +36%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$77 -76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $253 −$22 -9%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $995 +$575 +58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $835 +$183 +22%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $801 +$32 +4%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $751 +$50 +7%
UFC 324: Perez vs. Johnson (Flyweight, Prelims) Jan 20 $40 −$40 -100%
UFC 324: Fugitt vs. Miller (Welterweight, Early Prelims) Jan 20 $42 −$1 -3%
Suns vs. Nets Jan 20 $38 +$4 +10%
Pacers vs. 76ers Jan 20 $3,325 −$1,806 -54%
Mavericks vs. Knicks Jan 20 $1,790 +$54 +3%
ASB Classic: Fabian Marozsan vs Casper Ruud Jan 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Boise State Broncos vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Jan 14 $867 −$778 -90%
Saint Mary's Gaels vs. San Francisco Dons Jan 14 $735 +$52 +7%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Jan 14 $740 −$5 -1%
Hawks vs. Lakers Jan 14 $1,397 +$38 +3%
Nuggets vs. Pelicans Jan 14 $167 −$5 -3%
Bulls vs. Rockets Jan 14 $559 +$149 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Japan vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $101 4m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 78¢ $503 2h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 89¢ $502 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 89¢ $2,408 24h
Brazil leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,473 24h
Brazil leading at halftime? BUY Yes 93¢ $2,305 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 91¢ $2,125 44h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $101 44h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Colombia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 37¢ $102 44h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,005 47h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $203 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,800 2d
Jordan leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,799 2d
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,343 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $503 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $1,207 2d
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 94¢ $1,138 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 3d
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,031 3d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 94¢ $971 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $971 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 96¢ $934 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 69¢ $933 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $974 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $975 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $835 3d
New Zealand leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $834 3d
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 67¢ $565 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $376 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.00 · official $93.64 · 667 history records