Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:45:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0

score

5A 0x5a66…dcc2 crypto 22 markets active 5h ago coverage 57d

TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL +$15,378 (+18%) realized +$15,378 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip

Net edge-48%after slip

Net WR41%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Whale WR83%big bets

Drawdown24%max

Avg bet$3,927per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit64%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$16,048

7 days+$16,027

14 days+$16,027

30 days+$16,027

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +41%

net ROI/market (all)-42.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	-40.6%	-46.2%	39%	39%	+16.1%
≤30d	18	-40.6%	-46.2%	39%	39%	+16.1%
≤90d	22	-36.2%	-42.3%	45%	41%	+5.7%
all	22	-36.2%	-42.3%	45%	41%	+5.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~10%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-42.3%	41%	+5.7%
10% ← realistic here	-47.8%	27%	-4.4%
15%	-52.8%	9%	-13.6%
20%	-57.5%	5%	-22.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 39% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

10% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -36% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 83% (≥$3,000) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -33% → late -39% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,817 vs −$309 · ×5.88 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×4.9 per $1 lost it wins $4.9

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$15,378

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)83%

Open positions0

Markets (closed)22 / 22

History coverage57d

Avg bet$3,927

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown24%

Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 22 Trades

no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$30,324	+$7,109	+23%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$103	+$179	+174%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$15,157	+$6,787	+45%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$103	−$100	-97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$10,088	+$2,596	+26%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$211	−$205	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	Jun 16	$105	−$87	-84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Jun 16	$152	−$50	-33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	Jun 16	$5	−$5	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Jun 16	$101	+$21	+21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Jun 16	$203	−$127	-63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Jun 16	$11	−$11	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Jun 16	$106	+$27	+26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Jun 16	$104	+$19	+18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Jun 15	$15	−$15	-100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$6	−$6	-97%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Apr 30	$3,000	−$3,000	-100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Apr 29	$1,000	+$226	+23%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Apr 24	$10,000	+$1,071	+11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?	Apr 22	$15,498	+$137	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	72¢	$13,820	5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	52¢	$10,144	5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	10¢	$282	5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	4¢	$103	5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	83¢	$23,613	5h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	70¢	$20,180	6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$103	8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	95¢	$21,945	8h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$15,157	10h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	2¢	$103	11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	90¢	$12,684	12h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$10,088	12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	3¢	$103	14h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	BUY Down	2¢	$5	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	SELL Down	7¢	$12	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET	BUY Down	34¢	$105	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	SELL Up	99¢	$100	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$100	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$52	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$5	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	SELL Down	97¢	$122	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	BUY Down	79¢	$101	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	SELL Down	31¢	$76	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$102	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	BUY Down	78¢	$102	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$5	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	SELL Down	30¢	$133	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	BUY Down	21¢	$106	17h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records