Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:32:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
5A 0x5a66…cdf6 crypto 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,597 (+43%) realized −$270 · open +$1,867
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$525per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$5,412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$1,867
crypto 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-28.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -21.1% -28.6% 50% 50% +11.5%
≤30d 4 -21.1% -28.6% 50% 50% +11.5%
≤90d 4 -21.1% -28.6% 50% 50% +11.5%
all 4 -21.1% -28.6% 50% 50% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.6% 50% +11.5%
10% -35.4% 25% +0.9%
15% -41.7% 25% -8.9%
20% -47.4% 25% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 91% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.84 per $1 lost it wins $1.84
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$5,412
Realized−$270
Unrealized+$1,867
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage15d
Avg bet$525
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2,007 $3,730 +$1,724 (+86%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $1,500 $1,645 +$145 (+10%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,412.15 · official $5,412.15 (match) · 33 history records