Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:46:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a67…57ba other 129 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$135 (+17%) realized +$116 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +66% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +38% what you keep after slip
Net edge+38%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate26%28W / 81L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$60
14 days+$141
30 days+$141
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% +$115
sports 8% +$54
crypto 4% −$4
world 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+50.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +38.0% +24.9% 21% 21% +0.2%
≤30d 109 +65.9% +50.1% 26% 25% +9.9%
≤90d 109 +65.9% +50.1% 26% 25% +9.9%
all 109 +65.9% +50.1% 26% 25% +9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.1% 25% +9.9%
10% +35.7% 25% -0.6%
15% +22.6% 24% -10.2%
20% +10.6% 22% -19.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +66% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +90% → late +42% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$3 · ×4.44 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$116
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses28 / 81
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)109 / 129
History coverage12d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 71¢ 98¢ $50 $69 +$19 (+38%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Yes 13¢ 41¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+220%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $4 −$2 -37%
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 +$31 +1519%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 2 Mexico? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Morocco 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $248 +$80 +32%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $2 +$4 +196%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Brazil? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 +$10 +509%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -80%
Exact Score: Colombia 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 24 $2 +$15 +711%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $2 −$1 -58%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $21 −$1 -5%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 +$16 +784%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $1 +$5 +406%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score AND Will Norway win on 2026-06 Jun 23 $3 +$11 +356%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 +$15 +711%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Jun 23 $2 +$10 +509%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Iraq? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -90%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Iraq? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $61 +$26 +43%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 +$12 +595%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 13m
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 17m
Exact Score: Senegal 1 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 29m
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 3 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Senegal 2 - 0 Iraq? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 1 France? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 71¢ $50 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 11¢ $5 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 4¢ $5 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND BUY 12¢ $5 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 23¢ $5 22h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 AND Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AN BUY 4¢ $2 22h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 7¢ $5 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 23h
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 24h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to S BUY 1¢ $2 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 15¢ $5 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 3¢ $5 30h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 41h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 41h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 42h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 44h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 44h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 Mexico? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.58 · official $90.22 · 176 history records