Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T12:02:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
5A 0x5a6b…1a3e sports 187 markets active 1d ago coverage 601d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,549 (+9%) realized +$6,535 · open +$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate60%111W / 75L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$819est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$234now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$334
7 days−$5,884
14 days+$4,681
30 days+$4,681
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% +$6,308
other 11% −$808
world 3% +$56
crypto 1% +$247
politics 0% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-5.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -34.5% -40.8% 36% 33% -24.9%
≤30d 153 +1.2% -8.4% 58% 52% -3.0%
≤90d 153 +1.2% -8.4% 58% 52% -3.0%
all 186 +4.1% -5.8% 60% 53% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.8% 53% -2.2%
10% -14.8% 47% -11.5%
15% -23.1% 41% -20.1%
20% -30.6% 33% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +35% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$210 vs −$234 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

601d coverage
Net worth$234
Realized+$6,535
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses111 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$819
Open positions1
Markets (closed)186 / 187
History coverage601d
Avg bet$386
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Olise 56¢ 60¢ $220 $234 +$14 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $279 −$279 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $152 +$1 +0%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $108 −$108 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $293 +$177 +60%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $122 −$122 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 18 $276 −$276 -100%
Will BetBoom win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $223 −$104 -46%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$70 +70%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman Jun 17 $99 +$101 +101%
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 17 $328 +$172 +52%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $147 −$147 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $173 −$173 -100%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 17 $306 +$5 +2%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $226 −$226 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $485 −$485 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $527 −$527 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 Jun 17 $127 −$23 -18%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $430 +$134 +31%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $176 +$124 +70%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 17 $547 +$420 +77%
World Cup: Any Player to Score a Hat Trick? Jun 17 $3,406 +$94 +3%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $230 +$137 +60%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $207 +$193 +93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$8 +74%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 17 $372 +$391 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $509 +$176 +34%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $527 −$59 -11%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $549 +$651 +119%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $338 +$147 +43%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 179.5 Jun 17 $609 +$586 +96%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $322 +$178 +55%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $348 +$39 +11%
Asuncion 2: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Juan Bautista Torres Jun 16 $2,317 −$76 -3%
Asuncion 2: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 16 $451 +$49 +11%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $141 −$98 -70%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $124 −$124 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $147 −$147 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 16 $153 −$153 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 16 $284 −$135 -48%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $162 −$162 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $149 −$149 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 16 $171 −$171 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise SELL Olise 60¢ $98 31h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 51¢ $85 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 51¢ $42 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 51¢ $20 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 51¢ $0 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 51¢ $5 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 34¢ $35 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 55¢ $279 2d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $152 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 57¢ $114 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 65¢ $180 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $120 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 4d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 46¢ $276 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $122 4d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 3¢ $20 4d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 3¢ $0 4d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY No 3¢ $1 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $81 4d
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Ryan Seggerman BUY Laslo Djere 49¢ $99 4d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 36¢ $108 5d
Brescia: Darya Astakhova vs Luisina Giovannini BUY Luisina Giovannini 65¢ $328 5d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $264 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $176 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 SELL Under 90¢ $11 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 SELL Under 90¢ $22 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 SELL Under 90¢ $22 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 SELL Under 90¢ $22 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 SELL Under 90¢ $100 5d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 SELL Under 90¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $233.75 · official $233.75 (match) · 807 history records