Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:40:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a70…502d sports 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 163d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%13W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 34% −$5
other 21% −$4
politics 20% −$3
crypto 9% $0
economics 6% $0
culture 5% −$1
world 4% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 3 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.2%
all 165 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

163d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses13 / 152
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage163d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 11 $4 $0 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 29 $46 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 15 $41 −$1 -3%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $143 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 01 $291 $0 -0%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 01 $264 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 01 $119 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 01 $311 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 01 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 01 $54 $0 -1%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 01 $313 −$1 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 01 $183 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 01 $101 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 28 $329 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 26 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 26 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 26 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 26 $159 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $7 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 22 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Feb 22 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 22 $164 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $86 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $52 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $23 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $114 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $49 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $154 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 22 $54 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $84 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 21 $112 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $162 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 21 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 21 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 21 $57 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 20 $54 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 20 $51 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $42 1h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 96¢ $4 12d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 98¢ $4 12d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $45 25d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $46 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $40 39d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $41 39d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $42 114d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $42 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $50 114d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $50 114d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 92¢ $48 114d
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 92¢ $48 114d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $42 114d
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $43 114d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 96¢ $53 115d
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 96¢ $53 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $44 115d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $44 115d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $8 115d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $32 115d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $8 115d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $19 115d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $19 115d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 115d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $8 115d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $5 115d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $14 115d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $54 115d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 91¢ $42 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.16 · official $42.16 (match) · 637 history records