Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:16:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a72…76b2 other 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$92 (-18%) realized −$74 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$95
sports 22% −$4
world 14% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +6.6% -3.6% 40% 40% -35.9%
≤30d 5 +6.6% -3.6% 40% 40% -35.9%
≤90d 5 +6.6% -3.6% 40% 40% -35.9%
all 5 +6.6% -3.6% 40% 40% -35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.6% 40% -35.9%
10% -12.8% 40% -42.0%
15% -21.2% 40% -47.6%
20% -28.9% 20% -52.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$53 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage4d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 53¢ 40¢ $70 $53 −$17 (-24%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$1 -3%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$2 -11%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $160 −$156 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$22 +106%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $99 +$40 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $21 38m
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $21 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 1h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $21 2h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $21 2h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $21 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $99 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $61 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $42 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 39¢ $21 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $99 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.30 · official $122.30 (match) · 20 history records