Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:31:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
5A 0x5a73…bc43 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 273d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%5W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% −$3
sports 22% $0
other 19% −$1
politics 19% $0
economics 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 5 -1.0% -10.4% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 10 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -10.3%
all 30 -1.7% -11.1% 17% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -10.0%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

273d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses5 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage273d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 90¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $41 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $33 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $37 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $2 $0 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $39 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $38 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 18 $35 −$1 -2%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $27 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 02 $1 $0 -23%
Ukraine hits Moscow by September 30? Oct 01 $19 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $8 −$1 -15%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 28 $51 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $23 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $28 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 25 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 24 $4 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 24 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $28 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $36 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 3h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $35 3h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 71¢ $33 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 69¢ $32 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $16 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $16 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 67¢ $29 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $36 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 73¢ $37 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 53¢ $37 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 53¢ $37 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $34 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $25 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $10 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 31d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 22¢ $8 32d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 25¢ $10 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 33¢ $27 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 33¢ $24 32d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 33d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 33d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 33d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 33d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 33d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 33d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $38 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.81 · official $0.00 (match) · 109 history records